ΣΧΕΔΙΟ ΑΠΟΘΑΣΤΕΡΕΟΠΟΙΗΣΗΣ Η ΑΠΛΑ ΣΥΜΠΤΩΣΗ! Στις φλόγες η Ελλάδα: 91 πυρκαγιές μέσα σε ένα 24ωρο

Κάλαμος, Ζάκυνθος και Κεφαλλονιά είναι τα τρία βασικά μέτωπα που έχει να αντιμετωπίσει ο κρατικός μηχανισμός, μετά την εφιαλτική χτεσινή ημέρα, όπου είχαμε τις περισσότερες πυρκαγιές μέσα σε ένα 24ωρο, από την αρχή της αντιπυρικής περιόδου.

Η έκκρυθμη κατάσταση που έχει δημιουργήσει το μπαράζ των πυρκαγιών στην Ζάκυνθο αρχικά, όπου οι επιτελείς της Πυροσβεστικής μιλούν καθαρά για εμπρησμούς, και η πυρκαγιά στον Κάλαμο μετά, έχει φέρει στα όρια του το μηχανισμό δασοπυρόσβεσης, καθώς οι όλες οι δυνάμεις είναι διεσπαρμένες και έχουν υποστεί μεγάλη καταπόνηση.

Μόνο το 24ωρο που πέρασε, στην Ζάκυνθο εκδηλώθηκαν 22 πυρκαγιές.

Σε όλη την Ελλάδα, κατά τη διάρκεια του τελευταίου 24ώρου και συγκεκριμένα από ώρα 06:00 της 13-08-2017 έως την 06:00 της 14-08-2017, εκδηλώθηκαν 91 δασικές πυρκαγιές. Οι περισσότερες από αυτές τέθηκαν άμεσα υπό έλεγχο στο αρχικό τους στάδιο.

Απο τις 22 πυρκαγιές στην Ζάκυνθο χτες, σχεδόν όλες τέθηκαν υπό έλεγχο αμέσως. Παραμένουν, όμως, σε εξέλιξη στο νησί 12 πυρκαγιές από αυτές που εκδηλώθηκαν απο τις 11 Αυγούστου μέχρι και χτες.

Οι πιο σοβαρές από αυτές που εκδηλώθηκαν :
• Στις 11/08/2017 και περί Ω/13:33 στην περιοχή Καταστάρι - Παναγούλα
• στις 12/08/2017 και περί Ω/15:35 στην περιοχή Κοιλιωμένο
• στις 12/08/2017 και περί Ω/23:12 στην περιοχή Ελιές Βολίμων
• στις 12/08/2017 και περί Ω/23:37 στην περιοχή Αστέρι Βολίμων
• στις 13/08/2017 και περί Ω/00:30 στην περιοχή Αλωνάκι 'Ανω Βολίμων
• στις 13/08/2017 και περί Ω/00:32 στην περιοχή Σκούτα 'Ανω Βολίμων

Συνολικά στο νησί επιχειρούν 134 πυροσβέστες με 37 οχήματα, 30 άτομα πεζοπόρο, 1 Ε/Π.

Σε εξέλιξη είναι οι πυρκαγιές που εκδηλώθηκαν στη Κεφαλλονιά:

• Στις 13/08/2017 και περί Ω/21:35 στην περιοχή Δοριζάτα
• Στις 13/08/2017 και περί Ω/21:37 στην περιοχή Καραβάδος
• Στις 13/08/2017 και περί Ω/21:23 στην περιοχή Σβορωνάτα
Όλες οι υπόλοιπες πυρκαγιές στν χώρα είναι σε ύφεση ή υπο έλεγχο.

Σήμερα, σύμφωνα με το Χάρτη Πρόβλεψης Κινδύνου Πυρκαγιάς, προβλέπεται υψηλός κίνδυνος (Δείκτης 3) για την Αττική, Βοιωτία, Εύβοια, Μαγνησία, Χαλκιδική, Θεσσαλονίκη, Αιτωλοακαρνανία, Ηλεία, Αχαΐα, Μεσσηνία, Λακωνία, Λασίθι, Ηράκλειο, Επτάνησα, Δωδεκάνησα, Σποράδες και τα νησιά Σκύρο, Λέσβο, Χίο, Ψαρά, Σάμο, Ικαρία.

Ginormous, 70-Ton Titanosaur Is the Largest Dinosaur on Record

About 100 million years ago, when Earth was uncommonly warm and flowering plants had diversified into an array of bountiful blooms, the largest land-living animal on record — a massive, long-necked titanosaur — stomped around, searching for plants it could eat to fuel its enormous body, a new study finds.

The newly identified titanosaur was so immense — 69 tons (62 metric tons), which is equivalent to the weight of nearly one dozen Asian elephants — that it has claimed the title as the largest dinosaur on record, surpassing the previous record holder, another titanosaur known as Argentinosaurus hiunculensis.

Although it's exciting to discover the world's largest land-dwelling beast, the researchers said they're even more thrilled about the vast number of fossilized bones they uncovered, belonging to at least six of the giants. By comparing these newfound bones with those of other titanosaurs, the researchers were able to construct a comprehensive titanosaur family tree, they said. 

This family tree shows that some of Patagonia's giant titanosaurs — including Argentinosaurus, Puertasaurus, Notocolossus and the newly identified dinosaur — are part of the same evolutionary group, known as a clade.

This clade indicates that "extreme gigantism evolved once in the history of sauropods" rather than multiple times, said study lead researcher José Luis Carballido, a researcher with the Argentine National Research Council (CONICET) who works at the Museum of Paleontology Egidio Feruglio in Trelew, a city in the Chubut province of Argentina.

The family tree shows that the clade of P. mayorum is a sister clade to Rinconsauria, a lineage that includes some of the smallest titanosaurs on record, the researchers wrote in the study. Some of these "small" titanosaurs, including Rinconsaurus and Saltasaurus had body masses of about 6 tons (5.4 metric tons).

Credit: Carballido J.L. et al./Proceedings of the Royal Society B

Colossal discovery

The modern story of the mid-Cretaceous titanosaur began in 2012, when Aurelio Hernandez, a worker on La Flecha ranch in Patagonia, Argentina, found some fossils one day while managing the ranch's sheep. Hernandez showed the spot to one of the ranch's owners, Oscar Mayo, who immediately realized that the specimens were likely dinosaur remains.

Mayo invited paleontologists at the museum to see the site, and they spent a total of 18 months excavating the bones, including an 8-foot-tall (2.4 meters) femur, or thighbone. An analysis revealed that the site contained the remains of at least six different individuals, Carballido told Live Science.

The finding was so momentous that the researchers allowed the American Museum of Natural History in New York City to display a cast of the dinosaur's skeleton in 2016, before the beast was even named. At 122 feet (37 m) long, the reconstructed dinosaur was so huge it couldn't fit into one room, and so museum curators positioned its long neck and tiny head to poke out into the museum's hallway, welcoming guests.

Now that researchers have had time to analyze the titanosaur's bones, they've formally named it Patagotitan mayorum. The genus name references Patagonia, where the dinosaur was found, and "titan" recalls Greek divinities, known for their strength and large size. The species name honors the Mayo family for their hospitality during the excavation, the researchers said in the study.

Superbig

Although all six of the P. mayorum were massive, an analysis of five femur bones and one humerus (a forelimb bone between the shoulder and elbow) revealed that these individuals "had not stopped growing," the researchers wrote in the study.

Even so, they were quite tall, and could likely reach almost 50 feet (15 m) high if their necks were pointing straight up, Carballido said.

The dinosaur model is larger than the exhibition area, so it welcomes guests to the museum at the elevators, as they enter the hall.

Credit: Copyright AMNH/D. Finnin

Given that these dinosaurs were not fully grown, "this means that there are even bigger dinosaurs out there to discover," said Kristina Curry Rogers, a paleontologist at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota, who was not involved with the study.

Still, it's important to note that P. mayorum isn't the largest animal by weight in the world. That honor goes to the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), which can weigh up to 200 tons (180 metric tons).

Vanishing lake

The six individuals were recovered from three different layers, or time periods. Perhaps so many individuals died there because there was once a lake in the region, prompting the titanosaurs to return time and again to drink from its waters, Carballido said. This is the first time that this concept, known as site fidelity, has been documented for such large animals, Carballido said.

It's possible that this lake dried out during droughts, and that these six titanosaurs died, in part, from thirst during those times, said Stephen Poropat, a paleontologist at Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne, Australia, who was not involved in the study.

"The stench of their rotting carcasses would have attracted carnivorous theropods [such as] Tyrannotitan, who lost teeth as they fed," Poropat told Live Science in an email. As the theropods chowed down, some of the P. mayorum bones could have been "pushed deeply into the mud," ultimately fossilizing, he added.

"It will be interesting to see if any of the bones have tooth marks on them," Poropat said.

Humungous thighs

The P. mayorum fossils are "very impressive" because they are so well-preserved and enormous, Poropat said. For instance, "the thighbones they have discovered equal or exceed every other thighbone in the fossil record in size," he said.

"There is no doubt that it was pushing at the upper limits of body size, and it will be interesting to see what adaptations it developed to cope with all of the pressures that went with being so big, [such as] acquiring enough food [and] finding a mate," Poropat said.

Patagotitan mayorum, an herbivore, is the largest dinosaur on record.

Credit: G. Lio

Poropat noted that the largest titanosaurs lived within a fairly narrow time span during the mid-Cretaceous, between 113 million and 83 million years ago, in southern South America.

Perhaps the long necks and tails of these titanosaurs helped them lose excess heat, as this period had warmer-than-usual temperatures, Poropat said.

Earthquake in China on August 08 2017

Up to 100 people are feared dead after an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 rattled south-west China. Seven people died and 88 were injured in the quake late on Tuesday, 21 of them seriously, the official Xinhua news agency said. It said all the dead were visitors to the area. But China's national commission for disaster reduction estimated that as many as 100 people may have died, based on 2010 census data of the mountainous, sparsely populated region. More than 130,000 houses may be damaged, it added in a statement posted on its website, based on a preliminary analysis of the disaster in a remote region of Sichuan province. The president, Xi Jinping, called for "all-out efforts to rapidly organise relief work and rescue the injured people", according to Xinhua. Tang Sesheng, a restaurant owner, fled her establishment in the town of Jiuzhaigou after she felt the earth moving under her. "I was also in Jiuzhaigou in 2008 during the last big quake, so I knew what it was. This felt even stronger," she told AFP. She said people had come out of their homes to sit out in the town's large public square, far from any tall structures, afraid to go back inside for fear that buildings might topple. Many were also sitting in cars, thinking it safer. She added: "People didn't dare grab anything like money or clothes - we just all ran outside right away." The quake occurred about 9.20pm (1320 GMT), not far from the site of a massive magnitude 8.0 earthquake that struck in 2008 leaving 87,000 people dead or missing. Its epicentre was 284 kilometres (176 miles) north of the provincial capital Chengdu and struck at a depth of 10 kilometres, the US Geological Survey said. The affected region, Jiuzhaigou county, includes one of the country's most famous national parks, a Unesco World Heritage Site known for karst formations and lakes. More than 38,000 people visited the tourist site on Tuesday, according to the official Xinhua news agency, which added that electricity was cut off briefly. Some houses at the scenic spot collapsed after the quake and authorities were organising young people to help evacuate residents, a staff worker at the park told Xinhua. Photos from the area posted on social media showed masses of people milling about on streets scattered with light debris, and a taxi dented from being hit by a large boulder. More than 600 fire officers and soldiers have been deployed, the People's Daily newspaper said. The Red Cross Society of China said it was deploying emergency specialists and volunteers to assist affected communities. "The quake hit at night, communications lines and electricity are disrupted and people are no doubt shocked and scared," said Gwendolyn Pang, a spokeswoman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies in China. "It may take some time to learn the extent of damage and casualties." China is regularly hit by earthquakes, especially in its mountainous western and south-western regions. Earlier on Tuesday, a landslide triggered by heavy rains killed at least 24 people in a different, mountainous region of Sichuan to the south of Chengdu.

An enormous crack in Antarctica's Larsen C ice shelf that was steadily growing for months has finally given way.

What began as a massive crack in Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf (shown here on March 8) culminated in July 12 with the separation of an iceberg about the size of Delaware and weighing approximately one trillion tons.Credit: Paul Quast/Landsat 8/USGS

An enormous crack in Antarctica's Larsen C ice shelf that was steadily growing for months has finally given way. The event reduced the size of Larsen C by about 12 percent and dramatically changed the shape of the frozen continent, perhaps forever.

Between July 10 and today (July 12), a massive iceberg measuring approximately 2,240 square miles (5,800 square kilometers) — one of the biggest ever recorded — separated from Antarctica's western peninsula, the European Space Agency (ESA) reported

.The saga of this iceberg goes back years, with scientists and satellites alike diligently scrutinizing the crack that birthed the hunk of ice. 

Data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite revealed the break. The iceberg's separation was later confirmed by NASA's polar-orbiting Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument, which captures imagery in visible and infrared, researchers with the British Antarctic research group Project MIDAS reported in a blog post. 

The Larsen C break was also evident in a photo captured July 12 by Copernicus Sentinel-1, an ESA satellite that uses radar to scan and capture images of Earth's surface in order to monitor the effects of human activity and climate change.

MODIS scientists had been using Sentinal-1 data to monitor the progress of the Larsen C crack, relying on the satellite's radar technology to capture images even during the dark of winter in the Southern Hemisphere, ESA representatives said in a statement.

This is the third ice shelf on the western peninsula of Antarctica to undergo massive ice loss in just over two decades. The Larsen A ice shelf broke apart in 1995, and between Jan. 31 and March 7, 2002, Antarctica lost 1,250 square miles (3,250 square km) of ice when the Larsen B shelf collapsed, according to NASA.

Ice shelves take shape as advancing glaciers and ice sheets flow from land to the coastline and extend over the sea. These giant structures can build up over many thousands of years, but persistently warmer-than-average air and ocean temperatures are now bringing about the shelves' disintegration in a matter of months, researchers have said.

A satellite image showing the giant (and then-growing) crack in the Larsen C ice shelf on April 6, 2017.

Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

Because ice shelves are platforms already floating on the ocean's surface, they don't immediately contribute to sea-level rise when they collapse, according to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSICD). But once the ice shelf is weakened or in pieces, it can no longer hold back the glaciers moving toward the sea, and this can dramatically increase the amount of ice and water pouring directly into the ocean, NSIDC reported.

And while the Larsen C ice shelf will begin to rebuild itself, it won't be as stable as it was before the collapse, MIDAS researchers said in a statement.

Countdown to collapse

Average ocean temperatures in Antarctica have been rising since the 1990s, especially around the peninsula where Larsen C is located. Scientists reported in 2015 that Larsen C was riding lower in the water than it had previously and had lost 13 feet (4 meters) of ice that could not be attributed entirely to warming air temperatures.

The first signs of a northward-extending crack in Larsen C appeared in 2010 and progressed in 2014, according to a study published in 2015 in the journal The Cryosphere.

Then, a photo of a massive crack in Larsen C was captured on Nov. 10, 2016, by researchers with NASA's Operation IceBridge, a survey of polar ice from the air. At that time, the rift measured approximately 70 miles (113 km) long and 300 feet (91 m) wide. IceBridge experts warned that if the crack extended far enough for an iceberg to separate from Larsen C, the iceberg would be approximately the size of the state of Delaware.

By Jan. 19, 2017, the crack had extended to 109 miles (175 km) in length and 1,500 feet (460 m) in width. This left the shelf's edge precariously connected to the mainland part by a frozen expanse measuring only 12.4 miles (20 km) long.

A second crack, measuring about 6 miles (9.7 km) long, appeared in May 2017, branching away from the original rift and further weakening the Larsen C shelf. Researchers warned that this crack could hasten the shelf's collapse.

On June 28, MIDAS researchers reported that the Larsen C ice sheet was flowing faster than ever — advancing 33 feet (10 m) each day, "the highest speed ever recorded on this ice shelf," the scientists wrote in a blog post. This hinted that a collapse was perhaps only hours away, they wrote.

The iceberg-to-be was barely hanging on by July 6, with the crack measuring 124 miles (200 km) long and a mere 3 miles (5 km) of ice connecting the future iceberg to the ice shelf. New cracks were extending from the end of the main rift. Then, on July 12, the enormous iceberg — holding a volume of frozen water about twice that contained in Lake Erie — finally broke free, MIDAS researchers reported.

While scientists knew that the Larsen C iceberg's separation was imminent, the speed at which it advanced was unexpected, Adrian Luckman, a professor of glaciology at Swansea University in the United Kingdom and a MIDAS project leader, said in a statement.

And it is yet to be seen what far-reaching effects the swift loss of so much ice will have, he added.

"We have been expecting this for months, but the rapidity of the final rift advance was still a bit of a surprise. We will continue to monitor both the impact of this calving event on the Larsen C ice shelf and the fate of this huge iceberg," Luckman said.

Ετοιμη να ξεκινήσει η επένδυση στην Αφάντου στην Ροδο

Με στόχο να ξεκινήσει το συντομότερο δυνατό η ανάπλαση της έκτασης στην Αφάντου, που απέχει μόλις 20 χιλιόμετρα από το διεθνές αεροδρόμιο της Ρόδου, το ΤΑΙΠΕΔ αποφάσισε να καλύψει τις δαπάνες των αρχαιολογικών εργασιών. Αυτό δεδομένου ότι το κόστος, που δεν υπερβαίνει τις 100 χιλιάδες ευρώ, είναι μικρό και η ανάληψή του από το ΤΑΙΠΕΔ, όπως ανέφερε πρόσφατα η πρόεδρός του Λίλα Τσιτσογιαννοπούλου, θα επιτρέψει την επιτάχυνση του ρυθμού υλοποίησης της επένδυσης.

Το έργο της ανάπλασης της έκτασης, συνολικού εμβαδού 1.615 στρεμμάτων, ανέλαβαν το καλοκαίρι του 2014, μέσω διεθνούς διαγωνισμού, οι εταιρείες M.A.Angeliades Inc. και Aegean Sun Investments. Ωστόσο, την τριετία που έχει μεσολαβήσει, η αξιοποίηση της έκτασης παραμένει μακέτα.

Γι' αυτό στο ΤΑΙΠΕΔ προγραμματίζουν, κατά το προσεχές διάστημα, να υπογράψουν με τους επενδυτές μνημόνιο συνεργασίας που θα περιγράφει τις ενέργειες που θα ακολουθηθούν σε σχέση με τις αρχαιολογικές εργασίες. Αντίστοιχο μνημόνιο έχει καταρτιστεί και για την αξιοποίηση της έκτασης 6,2 χιλ. στρεμμάτων του Ελληνικού.

Μέσα στο 2017, αναμένεται η αρχαιολογική υπηρεσία να πραγματοποιήσει τομές στην έκταση της Αφάντου. Οι εργασίες αυτές (που θα χρηματοδοτήσει το ΤΑΙΠΕΔ) θα επιτρέψουν να διαπιστωθεί εάν υπάρχουν αρχαιολογικά ευρήματα στην έκταση ώστε να ξεκινήσουν οι εργασίες.

Στο περίμενε οι επενδυτές

Το εγχείρημα της αξιοποίησης της Αφάντου χρονολογείται από το 1977, καθώς από τότε η ελληνική πολιτεία έχει ξεκινήσει να αναζητά επενδυτές. Το ακίνητο θεωρείται προνομιακό, καθώς εκτείνεται σε ακτογραμμή 7 χλμ., απέχει μόλις 20 χιλιόμετρα από το διεθνές αεροδρόμιο, την πόλη και το νοσοκομείο Ρόδου, είναι πολύ κοντά στην εθνική οδό Ρόδου-Λίνδου και βρίσκεται σε μικρή απόσταση από τις δημοφιλείς παραλίες της Τσαμπίκας και των Κολυμπίων.

Το 2014 οι εταιρείες M.A.Angeliades Inc. και Aegean Sun Investments ανακηρύχθηκαν ως προτιμητέοι επενδυτές, προσφέροντας τίμημα ύψους 42,1 εκατ. ευρώ, με το οικονομικό κλείσιμο της συναλλαγής να εκκρεμεί.

Υπενθυμίζεται ότι το τίμημα των 42,1 εκατ. ευρώ αφορά το ακίνητο Golf-Βόρειο Αφάντου 1.360 στρεμμάτων (26,9 εκατ.) και το νότιο τμήμα 255 στρεμμάτων (15,2 εκατ.). Η προβλεπόμενη ανώτατη συνολική δόμηση είναι 151.000 τ.μ.

Τι θα αναπτυχθεί

Με δεδομένο ότι το ακίνητο περιλαμβάνει γήπεδο γκολφ 18 οπών, που σχεδιάστηκε από τον Donald Herradine και λειτουργεί από το 1973, έμφαση θα δοθεί στη δημιουργία ενός πολυτελούς τουριστικού προϊόντος.

Συγκεκριμένα, σύμφωνα με την ανάπτυξη της έκτασης που προβλέπει το ΕΣΧΑΔΑ για την Αφάντου:

- το ποσοστό κάλυψης (η μέγιστη επιφάνεια που επιτρέπεται να καλυφθεί προς τη συνολική επιφάνεια του οικοπέδου) του ακινήτου θα είναι μικρότερο του 2,5%.

- θα αναβαθμιστεί ο αγωνιστικός χώρος 450 στρεμμάτων του γκολφ που αυξάνεται στα 530 στρέμματα, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των υποστηρικτικών υποδομών (κτήρια κλπ).

- δεν θα δημιουργηθούν 400 κατοικίες και ξενοδοχειακές μονάδες 4.000 κλινών, όπως φημολογείται και έχει υποστηρίξει ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ Δωδεκανήσων. Αλλά ξενοδοχεία περίπου 2.600 κλινών και περιορισμένος αριθμός πολυτελών κατοικιών, σύμφωνα με όσα προβλέπει το ΕΣΧΑΔΑ της Αφάντου.

- δίνεται η δυνατότητα κατασκευής τουριστικού λιμένα χαμηλής κλίμακας.

Εξαρθωθηκε σπειρα με κλοπιμαια ανω των 50.000.000 Μεγαλη επυτιχια της ΕΛ.ΑΣ

Δημοσιεύτηκε στις 26 Ιουν 2017

Δηλώσεις του Διευθυντή της Διεύθυνσης Ασφάλειας Αττικής, Υποστράτηγου Χρήστου Παπαζαφείρη και της Εκπροσώπου Τύπου της ΕΛ.ΑΣ., Αστυνόμου Β’ Ιωάννας Ροτζιώκου, σχετικά με αποτελέσματα των συνεχιζόμενων ερευνών για την εξάρθρωση των δύο εγκληματικών οργανώσεων, που ενέχονται σε σωρεία ληστειών και διαρρήξεων στην Αττική καθώς και για την εξάρθρωση εγκληματικών ομάδων που διέπρατταν ληστείες, κλοπές και διαρρήξεις, την εξιχνίαση ανθρωποκτονιών και υπόθεσης διακίνησης ναρκωτικών

The flying observatory SOFIA / Die fliegende Sternwarte SOFIA

The

coming week will bring two occasions to celebrate with SOFIA. Just yesterday was the 40th anniversary of the virgin flight by SOFIA's 'flying base' on 25 April 1977: operating under the registration N536PA, the Boeing 747 SP flew for the former airline PAN AM, mainly on long-haul routes to Asia or South America.

And it was 10 years ago today, on 26 April 2007, that the Boeing took off for the first time with the SOFIA observatory on board, following extensive modification of the aircraft and the installation of a telescope and door system.##markend##

This maiden flight – or more precisely the Functional Check Flight – was performed largely to examine all of the aircraft's relevant safety functions: engines, landing flaps, tail plane and other features. The short flight over central Texas was smooth. After their return, the flight crew under chief pilot Gordon Fullerton reported a few anomalies. This marked the start of SOFIA's prolonged period of flight testing. But the project was still a long way from putting the concept of an airborne observatory into practice. The first scientific observation flight did not took place until 26 May 2010, when researchers used the FORCAST instrument to observe the planet Saturn and to report 'first light'.

SOFIA and the Lindberghs

The first owner, PAN AM, put the aircraft into service in 1977. Anne Spencer Morrow, widow of Charles Lindbergh, christened it the 'Clipper Lindbergh' to mark the 50th anniversary of her husband's historic Atlantic crossing. SOFIA continues to fly under this name. NASA repeated the christening after completing the modifications and the maiden flight. Erik Lindbergh, grandson of Charles Lindbergh, unveiled a plaque and again gave the aircraft its name – this time to mark the 80th anniversary of his grandfather's Atlantic crossing.

The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy may be closer to an eruption than previously thought

The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy may be closer to an eruption than previously thought, according to new research by UCL and the Vesuvius Observatory in Naples.

The volcano has been restless for 67 years, with two-year periods of unrest in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s causing small, local earthquakes and ground uplift. Similar unrest occurred over 500 years ago, when it took a century to build up to an eruption in 1538.

The authors of the study, published today in Nature Communications, used a new model of volcano fracturing developed at UCL to investigate whether Campi Flegrei may again be preparing to erupt.

They found that the unrest since the 1950s has had a cumulative effect, causing a build-up of energy in the crust and making the volcano more susceptible to eruption. Previously, it was generally thought that the energy needed to stretch the crust was eventually lost after each period of unrest.

“By studying how the ground is cracking and moving at Campi Flegrei, we think it may be approaching a critical stage where further unrest will increase the possibility of an eruption, and it’s imperative that the authorities are prepared for this,” explained Dr Christopher Kilburn, Director of the UCL Hazard Centre.

“We don’t know when or if this long-term unrest will lead to an eruption, but Campi Flegrei is following a trend we’ve seen when testing our model on other volcanoes, including Rabaul in Papua New Guinea, El Hierro in the Canary Islands, and Soufriere Hills on Montserrat in the Caribbean. We are getting closer to forecasting eruptions at volcanoes that have been quiet for generations by using detailed physical models to understand how the preceding unrest develops.”

Movement of magma three kilometres below the volcano has caused the episodes of unrest. An eruption becomes more likely when the ground has been stretched to its breaking point, because the molten rock can escape to the surface when the ground splits apart. It is difficult to predict when an eruption may occur because, even if the ground breaks, it is possible for the magma to stall before reaching the surface.

The unrest has already caused severe social upheaval in Campi Flegrei. The three episodes of uplift have together pushed the port of Pozzuoli, near the centre of unrest, more than three metres out of the sea.

“The unrest in 1970 and 1983 caused tens of thousands of people to be evacuated from Pozzuoli itself,” said study co-author Dr Stefano Carlino from the Vesuvius Observatory.

The whole of Campi Flegrei covers more than 100 square kilometres outside the western suburbs of Naples and is the closest historically-active volcano to London. It is a large caldera, which means it appears as a giant depression in the surface rather than a conical mountain. An eruption today would affect the 360,000 people living across the caldera and Naples’ population of nearly one million.

“Most damage in previous crises was caused by the seismic shaking of buildings. Our findings show that we must be ready for a greater amount of local seismicity during another uplift and that we must adapt our preparations for another emergency, whether or not it leads to an eruption,” explained study co-author Professor Giuseppe De Natale, former Director of the Vesuvius Observatory, which belongs to Italy’s National Research Institute (INGV) for the study of earthquakes and volcanoes.