Tropical Storm Joaquin- 1/10/2015 bahames

NASA's GPM Satellite Captures Hurricane Joaquin: View 2
Joaquin became a tropical storm Monday evening (EDT) midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda and has now formed into Hurricane Joaquin, the 3rd of the season--the difference is Joaquin could impact the US East Coast.

NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite captured Joaquin Tuesday, September 29th, 2015 at 21:39 UTC (5:39 pm EDT).

At 2:10 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (18:10 UTC) on September 29, 2015, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image of Tropical Storm Joaquin. At the time, the storm was located about 650 kilometers (400 miles) east of the northwestern Bahamas (off the left side of the image). The storm was between a tropical depression and tropical storm in strength.

By September 30, Joaquin had strengthened to a category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 70 knots (80 miles per hour). The hurricane tracked toward the southwest at 5 knots (6 miles per hour). Forecasts suggest that the storm could affect the U.S. East Coast.

Hurricane Joaquin is still gaining strength as a Category 3 storm Thursday, and is now blasting the central Bahamas with hurricane-force winds, storm surge flooding and torrential rain.

The first U.S. landfalling hurricane in 15 months may still occur later this weekend along some part of the East Coast, however, considerable uncertainty remains at this point.

The Latest

• Hurricane Joaquin's center is located about 80 miles south-southeast of San Salvador in the central Bahamas.
• Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph, a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
• Joaquin has undergone rapid intensification that mayCONTINUE, bringing it to Category 4 intensity sometime Thursday.
• This system is moving slowly to the southwest and this is expected to continue through Thursday before turning north Friday into Saturday.
• Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for a large part of the Bahamas, where life-threatening conditions are expected in some areas.
• Joaquin may directly or indirectly affect the East Coast late this weekend or earlyNEXT week, and a landfall is still possible.
• Moisture and/or energy associated with Joaquin could enhance rainfall along the cold front in the Northeast late this week. Regardless, the East Coast will see significant impacts from the larger scale weather pattern taking shape.

Joaquin Blasting the Central Bahamas

Joaquin's eyewall is hammering Samana Cays, the Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the central Bahamas, and is nearing Rum Cay, San Salvador and Long Island (Bahamas).

Flooding from storm surge and torrential rainfall has been documented on Long Island and the Acklins. AWeather Underground personal weather station at Pitts Town, Crooked Island, has reported winds up to 80 mph, so far.

With the Category 3 hurricane passing close to the islands at a relatively slow speed, and perhaps even intensifying to Category 4 status, a catastrophic situation may unfold there with a prolonged period of intense hurricane conditions.

Hurricane Joaquin Information

The latest statistics as provided by NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane warnings continue in a large swath of the Bahamas and tropical storm warnings have been expanded to include the Turks and Caicos.

(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft flying through Hurricane Joaquin Thursday morning found estimated surface winds of 117 knots, or roughly 135 mph, in the southwestern eyewall's deep thunderstorms.

Infrared satellite imagery late Thursday morning showed Joaquin attempting to pop a distinct eye, another sign of itsCONTINUED intensification. Since early Wednesday morning, Joaquin has gone from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane, with a pressure drop of 46 millibars in about 30 hours.

Hurricane Joaquin continues to intensify as wind shear – harmful to the intensification of tropical cyclones – has lessened substantially from a few days ago, and a complicated atmospheric pattern makes its future track – including any potential landfall on the U.S. East Coast – extremely difficult to forecast.

Residents along the East Coast of the U.S. should pay close attention to the forecast now through this weekend. It's a particularly difficult forecast that hinges on the behavior of several different atmospheric features over North America and the North Atlantic Ocean.

Aware Threat Index

A graphic highlighting areas that need to pay close attention to forecasts as significant impacts could possibly be felt beneath the orange shaded area within theNEXT few days.

Computer forecast models – and the meteorologists who use them for guidance – are grappling with a complex interaction between Joaquin, a cold front near the East Coast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida, a strong bubble of high pressure aloft over the North Atlantic Ocean, and a potentially strong area of low pressure aloft digging into the southeastern U.S. later this week.

Complicating the forecast is the fact a more reliable forecast model keeps Joaquin appreciably away from the East Coast.

Overnight Wednesday night, another pair of somewhat less reliable forecast models moved their tracks substantially farther east, still affecting the U.S. East Coast, but, again, farther east than previous forecast model runs. NOAA Gulfstream aircraft surveillance missions and extra balloon soundings launched from National Weather Service offices on the mainland may have contributed to the eastward shift in some of the model guidance overnight Wednesday night.

Ensemble Forecast Model Tracks

The lines on this graphic represent several of the many ensemble track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but models such as these are often used as guidance for creating the projected path for a storm.

Despite all that, there still remains considerable uncertainty in Joaquin's future track, and, thus, its potential impact on the U.S. this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center says hurricane watches may have to be issued for parts of the East Coast, but no sooner than Friday.

Visible Satellite

During daylight hours, you will see the clouds more or less as they would look to the naked eye from space. At night, it's too dark to see the clouds, so this image will display infrared satellite data instead.

The government of The Bahamas has issued warnings and watches for much of its territory. Here are the details as of 11 a.m. EDT:

• A hurricane warning remains in effect for parts of the central, northwestern and southeastern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island,NEW Providence, The Acklins, Crooked Island and Mayaguana. This includes both Nassau and Freeport.
• A hurricane watch remains in effect for Bimini and Andros Island.
• A tropical storm warning is now in effect for the Turks and Caicos in the southeast Bahamas.
• A tropical storm warningCONTINUES for the rest of the southeastern Bahamas not in the hurricane warning, including the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Hurricane Joaquin: Watches and Warnings

This map shows watches and warnings issued by the Government of the Bahamas. The latest position of the hurricane is also shown, along with the forecast path over theNEXT 24 hours (dark red) and 48 hours (dark orange).

(MORE: Bahamians Prepare for Hurricane Joaquin)

Joaquin will eventually make a sharp right turn and head north sometime Friday, but it's already too late for that turn to spare the Bahamas from dangerous impacts.

Current Satellite and Winds

Displayed are current winds in the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos along with the latest satellite image of Joaquin. Wind plot data may be missing at times.

Given the forecast, potential impacts for the central Bahamas (and any other islands the eyewall of Joaquin touches) include:

• Catastrophic wind damage: Even well-built homes may lose their roofs and experience failure of one or more exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped and many uprooted. Given the small size of the islands, the electrical grid will likely experience a complete blackout and may be partially or completely destroyed. Recovery may take weeks or months.
• Dangerous storm surge and waves: In areas where the wind blows toward shore, water levels may rise 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels, flooding areas, especially near the immediate shore. Extremely high waves from the open ocean may then damage or destroy any structures flooded by seawater.
• Extreme rainfall: Rainfall totals in excess of 20 inches are possible, leading to potentially life-threatening flash flooding. Storm surge and the generally low elevations of the islands will greatly limit the ability of rainwater to run off into the ocean, further aggravating the situation.

The northwestern Bahamas, including Nassau and Freeport, are less likely to encounter Joaquin's dangerous core – but we can't rule out at a period of hurricane conditions later Thursday into Friday.

Track Forecast: Still Extremely Challenging

As discussed above, it is still too soon and the uncertainty remains high to be confident about specific impacts from Joaquin itself for the U.S. East Coast at this time.

The National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone is below. The official forecast remains a compromise between the competing scenarios from the computer models.

(MAP: Track Hurricane Joaquin with our New Interactive Storm Tracker)

Projected Path

Regardless of the ultimate outcome of Joaquin's path, portions of the East Coast will still see multiple impacts from the evolving large-scale weather pattern, including flooding rainfall, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and gusty winds. Click the link below for more information on that story.

(MORE: Significant Impacts Likely on East Coast)

CHECKback with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest developments on Joaquin.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Retired Atlantic Basin Hurricanes and Tropical Storms PHOTOS)

HURRICANE INGRID (2013)

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Flooding and landslides triggered by Joining forces with also-retired eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Manuel claimed at least 155 lives in Mexico in mid-September 2013. (Image: NASA)