Fatigued, over-stretched, and losing the support of its base constituency, the Syrian Army is conceivably nearing the point of collapse. Major rebel offenseshave taken control of the strategic cities of Idlib and Jisr al-Shegour in the north. Meanwhile, a second rebel offensive in the south has been steadily working its way towards Damascus, the capital.
These steady rebel gains have demoralized the Syrian military, created fissures within the regime of president Bashar al-Assad, and force Damascus to accept greater foreign assistance in propping an ailing government, according to an April 30th New York Times report.
Here's why the regime may be nearing its most serious crisis yet.
A plunge in Syrian Army manpower
The Syrian Army has suffered extreme causality and desertion rates during the civil war. During the 4 years of the conflict so far, the military has lost approximately half of its personnel.
This increased reliance on foreign fighters has elevated the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi'ite militia group Hezbollah to a key position, often to the chagrin of the Syrian military. According to the Times, Hezbollah "now leads or even directs the fight in many places," at the expense of Syrian commanders.
When irregular volunteers and foreign fighters are taken into account, the regime has not seen a collapse in overall firepower. But an increasing reliance on irregular forces and foreigners further limits the regime's actual reach and credibility.
Furthermore, clashes have erupted between the Syrian military and the Iranian-backed National Defense Forces in the crucial regime-held city of Homs.
A multitude of smaller fighting forces also makes it more difficult for Assad to coordinate the military into a single overarching force, or mobilize specifically in the regime's defense.
Declining support for the government
But after years of grinding warfare the minority communities are increasingly unwilling to send their sons off to military service within the Syrian Army. A growing number of communities that once supported the regime are keeping their children home in order to create local defense forces that are disconnected from regime command and control structures, the Times reports.
Draft-dodging and desertions are also on the rise. In response, Assad has bannedmilitary-aged males from leaving the country and has pressed discharged soldiers into multiple rounds of duty. This has fueled discontent with the regime and further eroded support among Assad's base.
Government infighting
This infighting is escalating only weeks after Assad allegedly gave a direct order for the arrest of his cousin on charges of plotting against the regime.
The regime is almost broke
This erosion in foreign capital and the collapse of the war economy has collapsed the value of the Syrian pound. The Assad regime has carried out raids throughout Damascus in a desperate effort to find foreign currency.
Meanwhile, the weakening of the pound has led to further discontent within the Syrian Army, according to the Times, as soldiers continued to be paid the same salaries but with a currency that's becoming more and more worthless.
Security is failing in Damascus
Meanwhile, entire neighborhoods have become de facto controlled by Hezbollah as the regime becomes increasingly stretched.
The rebels have consolidated
This concentration of fighters has swung the momentum in the rebels' favor, threatening the heartland of Assad support along the Mediterranean coast. It's also created conditions for a wider offensive throughout the north of the country in a single consolidated campaign.
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