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Boko Haram's leader said in a video obtained by AFP on Thursday that the group was behind a daring raid on military installations in the north Nigerian city of Maiduguri earlier this month.
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Προστέθηκε στις 12/12/2013
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The Long War Journal (Site-Wide) |
- OPCW report on chemical weapons use in Syria indicates possible rebel role
- Boko Haram leader releases video on Maiduguri attack, threatens US
- US seeks to include 'moderate' Islamists in Syrian coalition
- Ansarul Mujahideen kills 4 Pakistani troops in North Waziristan
- US drone strike kills civilians in central Yemen
- Attack in Ismailia leaves at least 1 dead, 18 wounded
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Posted: 13 Dec 2013 11:56 AM PST
Yesterday the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the international body tasked by the United Nations with investigating the use of chemical weapons in Syria, published its final report on the investigation. In keeping with its mandate not to assign blame, while the OPCW finds that chemical weapons have been used in Syria over the past year, the report does not attempt to reconstruct the causality of events.
The 82-page document addresses seven alleged instances of chemical weapons use this year, and finds evidence of "probable use" in five of them. All five involved organophosphorous poisoning agents, identified in four of the instances as sarin gas, which is one of the simplest chemical weapons to manufacture.
The five instances of probable chemical weapons use identified by the OPCW are briefly discussed below:
Khan al Asal, March 19. The first alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria in 2013, reported by the Assad regime to the UN in March. The OPCW described the use as small-scale and directed at soldiers and civilians. Based on OPCW interviews, the incident occurred in regime-held territory while shelling was taking place.
Saraqueb, April 29. The OPCW described the use as small-scale and directed at civilians. The delivery method was reported by an opposition activist to be an improvised munition dropped by helicopter.
Ghouta, Aug. 21. The OPCW described the use as large-scale and directed at civilians. The delivery method, after independent OPCW investigation, was reported as surface-to-surface rockets, capable of carrying a chemical payload.
Jobar, Aug. 24. The OPCW described the use as small-scale and directed at soldiers. The report indicated that, based on OPCW interviews, the chemical agent was apparently delivered by an IED thrown at regime soldiers.
Ashrafiah Sahnaya, Aug. 25. The OPCW described the use as small-scale and directed at soldiers. The report indicated that, based on OPCW interviews, the chemical agent was apparently delivered in canisters by a catapult operated by opposition forces who were launching objects at soldiers at a regime checkpoint.
OPCW report indicates targeting of regime forces
While the OPCW report acknowledges the enormous difficulties in obtaining a clear picture of the alleged incidents, it provides enough information to raise serious questions about earlier claims that only the Assad regime could have perpetrated chemical weapons attacks in Syria.
It is hard to see why regime forces would have attacked their own soldiers with chemical weapons, particularly while the UN inspectors were in Syria and in the wake of the horrifying Ghouta incident. This, along with other items in the report, suggests that rebels, including al Qaeda-linked forces, may be implicated in at least some of the attacks.
In this regard, see The Long War Journal's articles earlier this year raising these same questions:
Threat Matrix report, Questions about alleged gas attack in Syria
Threat Matrix report, A few more questions before we start bombing Syria Threat Matrix report, Still more questions about the proposed US military intervention in Syria | ||
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Posted: 13 Dec 2013 11:39 AM PST
A new video has surfaced showing Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau claiming responsibility for the Dec. 2 attack on military installations in Maiduguri, and threatening attacks in the West. The emergence of the video further contradicts reports that he was killed several months ago.
In the 40-minute video obtained by AFP yesterday, Shekau is dressed in military fatigues and vest, and has a Kalashnikov rifle under his arm. He speaks for 19 minutes, then the rest of the video shows footage of the attack. The 46-second clip released by AFP contains excerpts showing Shekau speaking, Boko Haram fighters entering Maiduguri in trucks, and fighters calmly in control of the military air base as aircraft and buildings burn.
In his speech in Arabic, Hausa, and Kanuri, Shekau reportedly claims that the whole world fears him, including US President Barack Obama, French President Francois Hollande, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and even the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
Addressing the United States, Shekau calls it a "prostitute nation of infidels and liars," and goes on to threaten that Boko Haram plans to attack outside Nigeria and even the US itself: "You are boasting you are going to join forces with Nigeria to crush us. Bloody liars. You couldn't crush us when we were carrying sticks. By Allah, we will never stop. Don't think we will stop in Maiduguri. Tomorrow you will see us in America itself. Our operation is not confined to Nigeria. It is for the whole world."
Shekau's threat follows the US' addition of Boko Haram to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorist entities on Nov. 13 along with a splinter faction known as Ansaru. Shekau himself was added to the US list of global terroristson June 21, 2012, along with Khalid al Barnawi and Abubakar Adam Kamba, both of whom "have ties to Boko Haram and have close links to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb."
In the State Department's official announcement of the Boko Haram designation, the group was described as "a Nigeria-based militant group with links to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) that is responsible for thousands of deaths in northeast and central Nigeria over the last several years including targeted killings of civilians." Ansaru, on the other hand, was described as focusing "on Nigerian military and Western targets."
Boko Haram's tactics have shifted lately, and are becoming more like those of Ansaru. As indicated by the recent attack in Maiduguri, Boko Haram has changed its tactics and grown more sophisticated. The group is now prepared to directly attack military installations, and in large numbers.
This is the second time in the past 30 days that Shekau has appeared in a video to claim responsibility for a Boko Haram attack. On Nov. 3, Shekau featured in a video titled "the Battle of Damaturu," in which he claimed to have personally commanded the operation that killed 35 people on Oct 24. While the authenticity of the clip could not be independently verified in November, Shekau spoke in Arabic, Hausa, and Kanuri, as he did in the video obtained yesterday. The Damaturu attack was Boko Haram's first significant raid in a major urban center in some time.
The attacks continue
Following the Maiduguri attack, investigations have begun into suspected Boko Haram collaborators within the military. According to President Jonathan, the Maiduguri attack confirms Boko Haram's external sponsorship, and that poverty is not a factor in the insurgency. President Jonathan has given his support to the creation of an African rapid response force that could help fight Boko Haram.
Meanwhile, Boko Haram attacks continue. The military has claimed that Boko Haram is forcefully conscripting in Borno to replenish its numbers, and there have been a series of suspected Boko Haram attacks along the Maiduguri-Damboa-Biu highway.
The Nigerian military has reported that at least 25 Boko Haram fighters were killed yesterday near the highway. According to The Vanguard, Boko Haram members crossed the road from their camps in the Sambisa Forest and exchanged gunfire with troops. Three fighters were reported killed in the attack, while many more were killed by a military airstrike as they fled.
All this by a man reported dead in August
The escalation in Boko Haram attacks follows an Aug. 1 report in the Huffington Post that Abubaker Shekau had been shot and deposed by his own followers as a prelude to peace negotiations with the Nigerian government. The report alleged that Boko Haram's leadership had sent representatives to the Nigerian capital Abuja on June 25, where they revealed to the government that Shekau was no longer their leader. The report quoted Imam Liman Ibrahim, described as "the spiritual leader of Boko Haram," as stating that Shekau's teachings were becoming increasingly harsh, and that "the beheadings, the killings, the recent death of students ... this is not the way of the Holy Qu'ran. We could tolerate it no longer."
According to the report, Shekau had been given a choice of joining the peace dialogue, forming his own sect, or being killed, and had subsequently been shot in the lower leg, thigh, and shoulder. The sight of a limping Shekau in a video clip recovered by the military after a raid on a Boko Haram camp seemed to corroborate the story.
Clearly reports of Shekau's demise have been exaggerated.
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Posted: 13 Dec 2013 09:45 AM PST
After the US' efforts to prop up the Free Syrian Army have failed and the larger Islamist brigades of the FSA, which have fought alongside al Qaeda, have defected and created the Islamic Front, the Obama administration is now seeking to court the Islamic Front. The catch: The group must denounce al Qaeda and join the peace process. Read the full story at The Washington Post. Here is an excerpt:
The Obama administration is willing to consider supporting an expanded Syrian rebel coalition that would include Islamist groups, provided the groups are not allied with al-Qaeda and agree to support upcoming peace talks in Geneva, a senior U.S. official said Thursday.
Now, correct us if we are wrong, but didn't the US try the same strategy in Afghanistan, by attempting to get the Afghan Taliban to denounce al Qaeda and end military cooperation with the group, and to join the peace process? How well did that work out for the US? The Taliban have rejected negotiations and refused to denounce al Qaeda or even the generic term "international terrorism."
Keep in mind that the Islamic Front, in its official charter, calls for the establishment of an Islamic state and the imposition of Islamic law, both of which are goals shared by al Qaeda. The charter also hints that the Islamic Front will continue to work with al Qaeda's branches in Syria. It welcomes the "Muhajireen" [emigrants or foreign fighters] as "our brothers who supported us in jihad." [See LWJ report, Islamic Front endorses jihad, says 'the Muhajireen are our brothers'.]
And that just days ago Ahrar al Sham, one of the largest brigades in the Islamic Front, touted a joint operation with the Islamist State of Iraq and the Sham, and the Al Nusrah Front for the Peopel of the Levant, both al Qaeda branches that operate in Syria. Ahrar al Sham has a long history of fighting alongside al Qaeda in the Syrian civil war. Does the US really expect that to change by dangling some aid and cash?
Meanwhile, General Salim Idriss, the military chief of the now-gutted Supreme Military Council, won't even reject al Qaeda. Instead, he seeks to get the Islamic Front and al Qaeda's branches to work together.
"We are trying to stop the fight between the revolutionary forces and to go back to fight against the regime," Idriss told CNN, according to The Wall Street Journal [emphasis is mine].
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Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:33 AM PST
Yesterday, jihadists from Ansarul Mujahideen killed four Pakistani soldiers in an IED attack in North Waziristan. The jihadist group, which is known to include Uzbek fighters, claimed that the attack was carried out to avenge the death of Maulvi Ahmed Jan, a top Haqqani Network leader who was killed in a US drone strike in November. Ansarul Mujahideen has attacked Pakistani troops in the past in response to US drone strikes that have killed top Taliban leaders.
The IED attack took place in the Spinwam village in the Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan on Dec. 12. In addition to the four Pakistani soldiers who were killed, five more were wounded in the deadly blast.
Abu Baseer, the spokesman for Ansarul Mujahideen, told AFP that the IED attack was "in retaliation to the drone strike in Hangu."
The drone strike in Hangu that Abu Baseer is referencing is the Nov. 21 attack that killed Maulvi Ahmed Jan, a top Haqqani Network leader, and two Taliban shadow governors for eastern provinces in Afghanistan.
Jan has been described as "the right hand" and chief of staff of Sirajuddin. Jan often represented Sirajuddin in council meetings and mediated disputes with jihadist groups such as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. He is also said to have directed and organized suicide assaults in Afghanistan, particularly in Kabul, as well as served as a key financier and logistics expert for the Haqqani Network.
Ansarul Muhajideen has claimed credit for four other attacks against Pakistani military forces in the past year. While Ansarul Muhajideen is often described as a group that is affiliated with the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, it has claimed to have attacked Pakistani troops in retaliation for drone strikes that killed the emir of the Mullah Nazir Group and fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party, as well as attacks against Shia to avenge the deaths of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq.
On Jan. 13, the group ambushed a Pakistani military convoy as it traveled on a road in the Ramzak area of North Waziristan. Fourteen soldiers were killed in the attack and 25 more were wounded. Abu Baseer said the attack was carried out to retaliate for Pakistani military complicity in the US drone campaign in Pakistan's tribal areas.
Less than two weeks prior to the Ansarul Mujahideen attack, the US killed Mullah Nazir in a drone strike. Nazir was a powerful independent Taliban commander in South Waziristan who also said he was a member of al Qaeda; he was not affiliated with the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan.
On July 26, Ansarul Mujahideen claimed credit for a double suicide attack in Kurram that killed 57 people and wounded 167 more. Abu Baseer said the group would "plan more similar attacks against the Shi'ite community in Pakistan to seek revenge for the brutalities of Shi'ites against Sunni Muslims in Syria and Iraq." Sectarian attacks such as the one in Kurram are usually associated with the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
On Sept. 1, the jihadist group killed nine Frontier Corps troops and wounded 20 more in an IED attack on a convoy that was traveling from the Data Khel area, a known al Qaeda haven in North Waziristan, to Miramshah, a Haqqani Network stronghold. Abu Baseer said the attack was conducted to avenge a drone strike that killed four members of the Turkistan Islamic Party, a terror group that is allied with al Qaeda, the Taliban, and a host of other jihadist organizations based in the area.
And on Nov. 20, Ansarul Mujahideen said a suicide attack in North Waziristan that killed two paramilitary Frontier Corps troops was carried out to avenge the death of former Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan emir Hakeemullah Mehsud, who was killed in a US drone strike on Nov. 1.
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Posted: 12 Dec 2013 06:04 PM PST
The US launched its second drone strike in Yemen this week, killing several civilians in an attack on a wedding convoy that is thought to have included members of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Today's strike took place near the city of Rada'a in the central province of Baydah, The Associated Press reported. Yemeni military and intelligence officials said the drones hit a group of vehicles transporting members of a wedding party, but one Yemeni security official said al Qaeda members were thought to have been traveling with the convoy.
Fifteen people were killed and five more were wounded, according to Reuters. The initial press accounts indicate that all of those killed were civilians.
The US has mistakenly killed civilians in drone strikes in the past. On Sept. 2, 2012, the US killed 13 civilians in a strike in Rada'a, according to Yemeni tribesmen. The exact target of that strike is not known. Seventeen civilians are reported to have been killed in Yemen in 2013, and an additional 25 were killed in 2012, according to data compiled by The Long War Journal. Two hundred and ninety jihadists are reported to have been killed in drone strikes in Yemen in 2012 and 2013.
Rada'a was an AQAP stronghold in early 2012, when a senior AQAP leader known as Tariq al Dhahab took control of the town, raised al Qaeda's flag, and swore allegiance to al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri. Tariq was later killed by a brother who is opposed to al Qaeda.
Another brother, known as Kaid al Dhahab, took over to serve as AQAP's emir in the province of Baydah. The US killed Kaid in a drone strike in Baydah on Aug. 30.
Background on US strikes in Yemen
Today's strike is the second in four days, and the second in Yemen since AQAP penetrated security at Yemen's Ministry of Defense in Sana'a. The suicide assault resulted in the deaths of 52 people, including foreign doctors and nurses, and 11 AQAP fighters. AQAP claimed that the assault targeted the US-run "operation rooms" for the drone program in Yemen.
The US has launched 25 drone strikes in Yemen so far this year. Despite an uptick of activity at the end of July and into the second week of August, the pace of the strikes has decreased since last year. In 2012, the US launched 42 drone strikes in Yemen against AQAP and its political front, Ansar al Sharia. The previous year, the US launched 10 drone and air strikes against the al Qaeda affiliate. The strikes are being reduced as the US government is facing increasing international criticism for conducting the attacks in both Yemen and Pakistan.
Between July 27 and Aug. 10, the US launched nine strikes in Yemen, but no drone strikes were reported for seven weeks prior to July 27. The spike in attacks from the end of July to mid-August was related to an al Qaeda plot that was uncovered by US officials. The plot's discovery led the US to close down more than 20 embassies and diplomatic facilities across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The plot involved AQAP emirNasir al Wuhayshi, who now also serves as al Qaeda's general manager.
Although six senior AQAP operatives, including the group's deputy emir, Said al Shihri, were killed in strikes in Yemen in 2012, the group's top leadership cadre remains intact. In July, AQAP confirmed that al Shihri, a former detainee at Guantanamo Bay, was killed; he is thought to have died or been seriously wounded in a strike in October 2012.
The US has targeted not only senior AQAP operatives who pose a direct threat to the US, but also low-level fighters and local commanders who are battling the Yemeni government. This trend was first identified by The Long War Journal in the spring of 2012 [see LWJ report, US drone strike kills 8 AQAP fighters, from May 10, 2012]. Obama administration officials have claimed, however, that the drones are targeting only those AQAP leaders and operatives who pose a direct threat to the US homeland, and not those fighting AQAP's local insurgency against the Yemeni government.
For more information on the US airstrikes in Yemen, see LWJ report, Charting the data for US air strikes in Yemen, 2002 - 2013.
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Posted: 13 Dec 2013 05:10 AM PST
At least one person was killed and over a dozen wounded when a bomb exploded outside a security forces camp in Ismailia. An initial statement from Egypt's Interior Ministry said 18 people have been injured, including six civilians.
Security sources provided higher figures of the number of wounded to press outlets. For example, AFP and Reuters reported that at least 35 people have been wounded.
It is not immediately clear whether the attack was the result of a suicide bomber, car bombing, or an explosive device planted near the camp. Following the explosion, gunfire was reportedly heard in the area.
Egypt's Prime Minister Hazem el Beblawi condemned the attack and said those behind it will not succeed in disrupting the country's ongoing political process, Al Ahram reported.
Thus far no group has claimed responsibility. On Oct. 19, the Sinai-based Salafi jihadist group Ansar Jerusalem (Ansar Bayt al Maqdis)conducted a car bombing attack near a military intelligence building in the city of Ismailia.
Since the ouster of Mohammed Morsi on July 3, there have been at least 256 reported attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, most of which were carried out against Egyptian security forces and assets, according to data maintained by The Long War Journal.
Ansar Jerusalem has claimed responsibility for a number of these attacks as well as other attacks outside the peninsula. The al Furqan Brigades, a group which emerged following Morsi's removal, has also taken credit for a number of attacks outside the Sinai Peninsula in recent months.
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