INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Weapons cache explodes in Homs

Posted: 01 Aug 2013 01:52 PM PDT





A massive weapons cache exploded in the Wadi al-Thahab neighborhood of Homs, Syria today. Opposition groups claimed "forty people were killed and at least 120 people were wounded," according to Reuters.


US drones kill 5 AQAP operatives in Yemen

Posted: 01 Aug 2013 11:36 AM PDT


The US launched its third drone strike in Yemen in the past five days, killing five al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula operatives in an area in eastern Yemen that is said to be under the control of the terrorist group.

The remotely piloted Predators or the more deadly Reapers launched a pair of missiles at a target in the Qatan Valley in Hadramout province today, killing five "al Qaeda militants," and wounding three others, Xinhua reported. Reuters said the missiles struck a car, while Xinhuareported that the strike took place at an "al Qaeda-held site in the Qatan valley" that is "used for training terrorists."

No senior al Qaeda operatives or leaders are reported to have been killed at this time. The identities of the al Qaeda operatives who were killed have not been disclosed.

Hadramout is the ancestral home of Osama bin Laden's family, and the province has become an AQAP bastion over the past several years.

In 2012, the US stepped up drone strikes against AQAP in Hadramout. Prior to May 2012, there were zero US drone strikes in the province. From mid-May until the end of 2012, the US launched seven attacks in Hadramout. Seven of the 42 drone strikes in Yemen in 2012, or 17%, have taken place in the province. Today's strike in Hadramout is the first in the province so far this year.

Since losing control of large areas of Abyan and Shabwa, AQAP has spread out into the provinces of Aden, Baydah, Al Jawf, Damar, Hadramout, Hodeida, Ibb, Marib, Saada, and Sana'a. Of the 35 drones strikes recorded by The Long War Journal over the past 12 months, 28 have taken place in the provinces of Aden, Baydah, Al Jawf, Damar, Hadramout, Hodeida, Ibb, Marib, Saada, and Sana'a.

Background on US strikes in Yemen

The US has launched 15 drone strikes in Yemen so far this year, but the pace of the strikes has decreased since last year. In 2012, the US launched 42 drone strikes in Yemen against AQAP and its political front, Ansar al Sharia. The previous year, the US launched 10 drone and air strikes against the al Qaeda affiliate. The strikes are being reduced as the US government is facing increasing international criticism for conducting the attacks in both Yemen and Pakistan.

The US has stepped up attacks in Yemen; today's strike is the third in five days. Two days ago, on July 30, US drones killed three AQAP fighters, including a Saudi operative, in a strike in Shabwa province. The previous strike, on July 27, which is said to have killed six AQAP fighters in the Al Mahfad area in Abyan province, broke a seven-week pause in drone activity in Yemen.

Although six senior AQAP operatives, including the group's deputy emir, Said al Shihri, were killed in strikes in Yemen in 2012, the group's top leadership cadre remains intact. Just two weeks ago, AQAP confirmed that al Shihri, a former detainee at Guantanamo Bay, was killed; he is thought to have died or to have been seriously wounded following a strike in October 2012.

The US has targeted both senior AQAP operatives who pose a direct threat to the US, and low-level fighters and local commanders who are battling the Yemeni government. This trend was first identified by The Long War Journal in the spring of 2012 [see LWJ report, US drone strike kills 8 AQAP fighters, from May 10, 2012]. Obama administration officials have claimed, however, that the drones are targeting only those AQAP leaders and operatives who pose a direct threat to the US homeland, and not those fighting AQAP's local insurgency against the Yemeni government.

For more information on the US airstrikes in Yemen, see LWJ report, Charting the data for US air strikes in Yemen, 2002 - 2013.


3 al Qaeda military 'training experts' killed in US drone strike in Pakistan

Posted: 31 Jul 2013 08:07 PM PDT


A Pakistani Taliban commander said that the US killed three al Qaeda military "training experts" in a drone strike in North Waziristan that took place last weekend. Al Qaeda continues to support Taliban military operations in Afghanistan and conduct its own attacks despite claims from US commanders that the terrorist group is merely fighting for its survival in the country and maintains a minimal presence.

The US drone strike, which took place on July 28 in the Shawal Valley in North Waziristan, a known hub for terrorists crossing into Afghanistan, is reported to have killed four Arabs and four Taliban fighters.

The Taliban commander told Reuters that the Arab fighters were "al Qaeda training experts who had crossed the border from Afghanistan to look at ways of setting up a similar camp on Pakistani territory." The al Qaeda fighters were identified as "Abu Rashid from Saudi Arabia, Muhammed Ilyas Kuwaiti from Kuwait, and Muhammed Sajid Yamani from Yemen."

US intelligence officials who track al Qaeda in the region told The Long War Journal that they are aware of the reports of the deaths of the al Qaeda operatives, but would neither confirm nor deny them.

The Lashkar-al-Zil, or the Shadow Army, al Qaeda's paramilitary force that fields small conventional units in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, is known to operate training camps in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan's tribal areas, which include North and South Wazirstan, host training camps for al Qaeda as well as a multitude of allied jihadist groups from inside and outside of Pakistan. In Afghanistan, al Qaeda is known to operate training camps in the remote northeastern provinces of Kunar and Nuristan.

The Lashkar-al-Zil embeds military trainers within Taliban units in both countries. These trainers provide instructions for battling security forces in local insurgencies and furnish knowledge, expertise, funding, and resources for conducting local and international attacks. The US Treasury Department officially acknowledged the existence of this unit when it added one such Pakistan-based trainer and commander of al Qaeda's "paramilitary brigades" to the list of global terrorists in June. [For more information on this unit, see LWJreport, Al Qaeda's paramilitary 'Shadow Army,' from February 2009.]

The US may have killed Abu Saif al Jaziri, a mid-level paramilitary commander from Algeria who works with the Haqqani Network in the region, in a drone strike on July 2 in North Waziristan. A Haqqani Network commander known as Maulana Akhtar Zadran and two Pakistani jihadists are also reported to have been killed in the strike.

US officials downplay al Qaeda's importance in Afghanistan

US military officials continue to downplay al Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan, despite ample evidence that the group is active in the country as well as in Pakistan.

In an interview on July 28, General Joseph Dunford Jr., the Coalition commander in Afghanistan, said al Qaeda was merely a "shell" of its former self, with only about 75 members in Afghanistan, who were mostly too busy trying to stay alive to plan attacks against the West, theNew York Times reported.

Similarly, Major General Joseph Osterman, the deputy operations commander of the International Security Assistance Force, told Reuterslast week that al Qaeda is fighting for its survival in Afghanistan and is isolated primarily in Nuristan province.

"They are less than 100, I would say, and they are in fact just trying to survive at this point," Osterman told Reuters. "I think what you find is that it's not necessarily that they have got a springboard in there."

Since the summer of 2010, Obama administration officials have been consistently claiming that 50 to 100 al Qaeda operatives are present in Afghanistan [for examples, see Threat Matrix reports, The 'only 50 to 100' al Qaeda in Afghanistan fallacy, from July 2010; and How many al Qaeda operatives are now left in Afghanistan?, from April 2011].

But a study by The Long War Journal that looks at ISAF's own reports on its raids against al Qaeda since 2007 paints a different picture. Since 2007, ISAF has conducted 357 reported raids against al Qaeda and allied groups in Balkh, Farah, Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Laghman, Logar, Nangarhar, Paktia, Paktika, Sar-i-Pul, Takhar, Wardak, and Zabul, or 17 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. Many of these raids have taken place over the past three years.

ISAF's data on the location of al Qaeda's network is mirrored by al Qaeda's propaganda. Al Qaeda routinely reports on its Afghan operations in Vanguards of Khorasan, a magazine produced for its members and supporters. Al Qaeda has reported on operations in all of the provinces where ISAF has conducted raids.

At the end of June, after completing its transition of security responsibilities to the Afghan National Security Forces, ISAF stopped reporting on its raids against al Qaeda, shutting off a window into how it targets al Qaeda's network in Afghanistan.


US officials claim Israeli strike in Latakia missed some Yakhont missiles

Posted: 31 Jul 2013 05:33 PM PDT



Almost three weeks after confirming that Israel carried out an airstrike against Yakhont missiles near the Syrian port city of Latakiaon July 5, US officials now say that some of the missiles were not hit as they had been moved in advance.

The New York Times reports:

American intelligence analysts have concluded that a recent Israeli airstrike on a warehouse in Syria did not succeed in destroying all of the Russian-made antiship cruise missiles that were its target, American officials said on Wednesday, and that further Israeli strikes are likely.



...While the warehouse was destroyed, American intelligence analysts have now concluded that at least some of the Yakhont missiles had been removed from their launchers and moved from the warehouse before the attack.

...After the Israeli attack, the Assad government sought to hide the fact that the missiles had been missed by setting fire to launchers and vehicles at the site to create the impression that the strike had landed a devastating blow, according to American intelligence reports.The New York Times further reports that American officials said the Israeli jets "flew over the eastern Mediterranean, fired air-to-ground missiles and never entered Syrian airspace."



The Daily Beast previously reported that a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment had concluded that Israeli jets had used "precision-guided munitions" to hit their targets in Latakia.

In the days after the July 5 strike, Israeli media outlets released satellite imagery of the location of the strike. In one of the images, a warehouse appeared to have been destroyed along with its contents, while another image showed a series of storage warehouses, some of which appeared to have taken hits.

Today's leaks come just a couple of days after Israeli media reported that the Israeli Navy was installing a defense system on its missile boats that is intended to protect against a number of threats, including the Yakhont anti-ship missile.

Since the start of the uprising against Bashar al Assad in Syria, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has carried out at least three other strikes in Syria. In those strikes, Israeli aircraft never entered Syrian air space, according to reports, but rather used a lofting maneuver while over Lebanon.

In late January, the IAF reportedly struck targets near the Scientific Studies and Research Center (Centre D'Etudes et de Recherches Scientifiques) in Jamraya. According to reports, the IAF targeted a weapons convoy, which included Russian-made SA-17 antiaircraft missiles, near the facility.

While some reports of the January strike suggested that the SSRC facility itself was targeted and "flattened," satellite imagery revealed that the facility, known for its ties to Syria's chemical weapons program, was relatively unscathed. The images did show a burnt road near the facility, possibly indicating the location of the Syrian weapons convoy when it was hit, however.

In early May, the IAF carried out two separate strikes in Syria. The first strike, on May 3, reportedly targeted Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missiles from Iran, which were located at Damascus International Airport. According to the New York Times, the missiles were flown through Iraqi airspace from Iran before reaching Damascus, where they were destroyed. The second strike, on May 5, reportedly retargeted the SSRC facility that was struck in January.

Although Israeli officials have not taken official responsibility for any of the alleged strikes, they have repeatedly warned that they are prepared to act in Syria to prevent Hezbollah and other terror groups from obtaining advanced weaponry.


Taliban step up operations in the north, ISAF buries head in sand

Posted: 31 Jul 2013 04:01 PM PDT



Last September, President Barack Obama claimed that the US-led military effort had "broken the Taliban's momentum in Afghanistan, and begun the transition to an Afghan lead." That same month, then US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta maintained that 2012's frequent insider attacks, the "green-on-blue," were evidence of the "last gasp" of the al Qaeda-allied group.

We here at The Long War Journal/Threat Matrix have disagreed with that position on Afghanistan as put forth by the Obama administration and the Department of Defense, and have stated that the situation in the country has not improved despite some tactical successes in the south [see LWJ report, Analysis: The Taliban's 'momentum' has not been broken]. We still maintain this view. Oddly enough, ISAF's own statistics supported our case [see also LWJ report, ISAF analysis shows Afghan violence remains worse than before surge].

And in February of this year, NATO's International Security Assistance Force had to admit that its data, which didn't support its case for an improving security situation, was fatally flawed to begin with. Shortly after this error was reported, ISAF stopped its monthly statistics updates, claiming that the Afghan data used to create the reports were unreliable. You can be sure if the Afghan statistics reported were good news, ISAF would have continued with the monthly reports.

Today the UN reported that civilian casualties in Afghanistan were up by 23 percent in the first six months of 2013 when compared to the same time period in 2012. While a rise in violence may be expected with the drawdown in Coalition forces and reduction in key combat enablers such as air strikes, the fact that the Taliban can significantly increase the violence should dispel the notion that the Taliban are the spent force portrayed by the Obama administration and ISAF.

In addition, this grim report at Der Spiegel yesterday on the security situation in the Afghan north shows that Germany, like the US, continues to bury its head in the sand as bad news rolls in:
Meanwhile, the security situation in the country is continuing to deteriorate. Instead of the stabilization it had hoped for, ISAF's Kabul headquarters now receives almost daily reports of dead and wounded soldiers. The casualty numbers declined in 2012 but have risen sharply since the beginning of this year.

"The security situation in some of the known problematic regions in the north has worsened appreciably since the beginning of the spring offensive," reads a July 11 internal diplomatic cable from the German consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif. Last Monday it emerged that the Taliban has killed 2,748 police officers just in the past four months.



Note that Taliban attacks are intensifying in areas where ISAF forces are no longer present. And also note that the special operations raids are rarely occurring in these areas, according to a German diplomatic cable mentioned in the Der Spiegel article:
The Taliban's attacks target the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), which for six weeks now have been officially responsible for protecting the people here. "Against the background of the transition process agreement, the number of attacks on ANSF forces and civilians has seen a sharp increase," the diplomatic cable from Mazar-e-Sharif reads. The Taliban feels "freer" in the provinces where the international troops have withdrawn, the cable continues, particularly as nighttime raids are rarely carried out there anymore.

Like the US and ISAF, the Bundeswehr is suppressing bad information in order to project a positive image of the mission. By ignoring Afghan statistics, the Bundeswehr is doing exactly what ISAF did in March when it decided to end its reporting on the security situation: claim that the Afghan statistics are imprecise. The Der Spiegel report continues [emphasis added below]:
This has serious consequences for development projects, the diplomats warn. They fear even the legitimation of the Afghanistan mission itself is at stake and that it will no longer be possible to credibly convey the mission's "core message" -- that Germany will remain involved in long-term civilian development aid "regardless of the conclusion of ISAF."

Germany's Defense Ministry, too, is starting to sense that the Afghanistan mission, already unpopular among Germans, is in danger of becoming a PR disaster with its constant stream of bad news.

In response, the Defense Ministry's strategists have adopted a new communications strategy -- ignore all bad news and banish any data that show an increasing number of attacks to the realm of statistical imprecision.The logic here is that, now that the Bundeswehr itself only rarely carries out missions, it is dependent on statistics from its Afghan partners, which aren't necessarily reliable. The new policy is to redefine the security situation in ways that no longer rely exclusively on the available statistics. Anything that doesn't fit is made to fit.



With the Taliban and their allies showing no sign of letting up on military operations, the pipe dream of negotiations with the Taliban dead on arrival, and Pakistan's continuing state sponsorship of the Taliban, the situation is not likely to improve as Coalition forces draw down. Meanwhile, the US and the West are whistling past the graveyard. We'd all better get used to this.