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Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:15 PM PST
Suspected Islamist militants attacked an Egyptian police patrol near the israeli border today. Egyptian security officials told the Associated Press that four police vehicles came under fire near a pipeline that has been attacked numerous times since the fall of Hosni Mubarak.
Seven policemen were reportedly wounded during the attack, "including a high ranking officer."
Meanwhile, in what appears to be a separate incident, an Egyptian army officer was killed by a sniper "seemingly affiliated to extremist groups" in el Arish in the Northern Sinai on Friday.
Since the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring, a number of Salafi jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda have sprouted up in the Egyptian Sinai. The terror groups have conducted attacks against the Egyptian military and policemen, Israel, UN peacekeepers in the Sinai, and a pipeline transporting natural gas to Israel and Jordan.
Israeli intelligence believes that most of the attacks originating in the Sinai have been carried out by Ansar Jerusalem, also known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis. According to a recent report, Western officials estimate that there are at least several hundred jihadists, some of whom are from Yemen and Somalia, now operating in the Sinai.
Following the Rafah incident, Egyptian authorities issued a security alert for the Sinai as intelligence services received information about potential attacks by extremist groups in the Sinai.
Today the Israel Defense Forces announced an order "prohibiting civilians from traveling in the area of Israel's Highway 10 near the Israeli-Egyptian border, except with special permission, for the next year." The directive was issued following "a thorough security assessment conducted by the IDF."
Israel recently completed most of its border fence with Egypt. The barrier is intended to help prevent the influx illegal migrants as well as stop jihadists operating in the Sinai from carrying out attacks in Israel.
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Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:21 PM PST
A couple of weeks ago, we noted that the Taliban had issued a policy statement condemning a forthcoming Islamic conference on suicide bombings as a "fraudulent gathering" and "clear American intrigue." The statement urged scholars from across the Islamic world to boycott the conference, in support of the mujahideen, their "spiritual offspring." [See Threat Matrix report, Taliban spurn Islamic scholars' conference on suicide bombings.]
Now Mullah Omar, the emir of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, has come out squarely against the conference, which is sponsored by the Afghan High Peace Council and is supposed to take place in Kabul later this month. In a statement to the media on Jan. 9, Mullah Omar warned that clerics who participate in the conference will be "answerable to God" and will be discredited by the believers, TOLOnews reports.
The conference, which was agreed upon in December by representatives of the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan, plans to consider the morality of suicide attacks as well as discuss the progress of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban and allied insurgent groups. As a regional Ulema gathering attended by Islamic scholars from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, it will have the authority to issue a fatwa condemning suicide attacks as haram (forbidden).
According to The News, the four-page statement released by Mullah Omar on Jan. 9 urged clerics associated with Darul Aloom Deoband and Jamia Al Azhar to shun the conference, condemned the conference as a desperate ploy by the United States, and reiterated the Taliban's insistence that "they will not lay down weapons until achievement of their goals and establishment of a real Islamic state."
There are some suggestions that the conference may not take place as scheduled at the end of January. The Nation reports that Kabul and Islamabad are asking Saudi Arabia to "send a high profile Ulema delegation to participate in the conference," and that such efforts, even if delayed, are necessary to achieving reconciliation in Afghanistan.
This latest Taliban statement makes abundantly clear that the Taliban intend not only to keep the upper hand in religious matters (i.e., to retain the ability to conduct suicide attacks), but also to undermine any attempts at reconciliation in Afghanistan. Additionally, Mullah Omar's statement is a strong indication that the Taliban have no intention of abandoning suicide bombings, a tactic that is linked to the Taliban's close ally, al Qaeda.
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Posted: 11 Jan 2013 11:56 AM PST
Afghan and Coalition troops killed a facilitator for the al Qaeda-linked Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) during a raid in Afghanistan's northern province of Takhar yesterday. In a separate raid today, Afghan and Coalition troops detained another IMU leader who also serves as a leader for the Taliban during an operation in Burkah district, Baghlan province.
The International Security Assistance Force identified the slain IMU facilitator as Mazlum Yar. ISAF revealed to The Long War Journal that Mazlum, also known as Qari Asrar or Tufan, was an Afghan national. He "planned and executed improvised explosive device attacks targeting Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan officials, as well as Afghan and coalition forces," according to the ISAF report. He is also known to have facilitated suicide bombers in Takhar and neighboring Baghlan province, and he was "organizing IED emplacement for an impending attack" prior to his death. Three suspected insurgents were also detained during the operation.
Today, ISAF reported that an unnamed Taliban and IMU leader who "planned and executed attacks against Afghan and coalition forces" was arrested by a joint Afghan-Coalition force operating in Baghlan province in Afghanistan's northern region. While it is not uncommon for an insurgent leader to serve as a leader for two groups simultaneously, the detained leader serves a unique responsibility of rooting out disloyal members of the two groups, according to the ISAF press release. Today's raid also marks the first reported ISAF operation targeting an IMU operative in Baghlan province since April 21 last year, which was the only known operation in Baghlan targeting the IMU in 2012.
The northern Afghan provinces of Baghlan, Faryab, Kunduz, Sar-i-Pul, and Takhar are known strongholds of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. In early 2011, ISAF noted the location of IMU-linked suicide camps in both Sar-i-Pul and Samangan.
Yesterday's operation that killed Mazlum, is the first al Qaeda-linked operative known to have been targeted inside Afghanistan this year and the first IMU operative targeted since Dec. 4. However, ISAF does not issue press releases for all of its raids against al Qaeda and allied groups. During a raid on Dec. 4, Afghan and Coalition forces detained a facilitator who directed the emplacement of IEDs in neighboring Kunduz province.
Last year, 38 raids were conducted against the IMU, according to an investigation by The Long War Journal of ISAF operations that targeted al Qaeda-affiliated groups. The vast majority of those raids took place in Afghanistan's northern provinces, targeting IMU leaders and facilitators who often work, and sometimes lead, Taliban fighters. Mazlum's role as an IMU facilitator fits a common pattern of al Qaeda-affiliated militants serving as advisers and experts in IED use.
Background on the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is a key ally of al Qaeda and the Taliban, and supports operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as plots attacks in Europe. The IMU is known to fight alongside the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and has integrated into the Taliban's shadow government in northern Afghanistan. [For more information on the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, see LWJ report, IMU cleric urges Pakistanis to continue sheltering jihadis in Waziristan.]
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan fighters often serve as bodyguards for top Pakistani Taliban and al Qaeda leaders. Apart from its operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the IMU has stepped up attacks in Central Asian countries as well. In September 2010, the IMU took credit for the Sept. 19 ambush that killed 25 Tajik troops, and also threatened to carry out further attacks in the Central Asian country.
The IMU has been a prime target of special operations forces in Afghanistan. Last year, special operations forces conducted at least 38 raids against the IMU; in Badakhshan, Baghlan, Faryab, Logar, Helmand, Kunduz, Takhar, and Wardak, or eight of Afghanistan's 34 provinces; according to ISAF press releases compiled byThe Long War Journal.
Adil is credited with increasing the IMU's profile in Pakistan and Afghanistan after the death of Yuldashev, US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal. Whereas Yuldashev had been content with confining the group's operations largely to Pakistan's tribal areas, Adil pushed to expand operations in northern and eastern Afghanistan, as well is in the Central Asian republics.
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Posted: 11 Jan 2013 08:58 AM PST
Since the end of the surge of US forces in Afghanistan in 2011, the US has been cutting its troop levels in the country. So far, the number of US troops has been reduced from a high of 100,000 in 2011 to 66,000 today. Under an agreement between NATO and the Afghan government, the NATO combat mission in Afghanistan will conclude by the end of 2014, when the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will have assumed full responsibility for the country's security. Discussions are now being conducted on how many US troops should remain in Afghanistan after 2014.
General John Allen's recommendations
According to the New York Times, General John Allen, commander of US forces in Afghanistan, has put forward his recommendations. The general's recommendations include three options which depend on the capabilities that are to be retained: 6,000 troops; 10,000 troops; and 20,000 troops.
Option#1: "With 6,000 troops, defense officials said, the American mission would largely be a counterterrorism fight of Special Operations commandos who would hunt down insurgents. There would be limited logistical support and training for Afghan security forces." US forces would be concentrated in one base only, Bagram. This is the 'ANSF is on its own' option.
Option#2: "With 10,000 troops, the United States would expand training of Afghan security forces. " On top of the troops from option #1, this would provide an additional 4,000 US troops to support training and mentoring in the ANSF. These troops would essentially continue the deployment of training teams currently in place. Some troops would be assigned to ANSF training bases and others would be partnered with ANSF units in the field. In addition to training and mentoring, this option would confer some ability for ANSF units to call in NATO airstrikes. This number of troops is similar to US troop levels in 2003-2004.
Option#3: "With 20,000 troops, the Obama administration would add some conventional Army forces to patrol in limited areas." On top of the troops from option #2, this option adds 10,000 troops (about one or two brigades) of conventional army forces. It is unlikely that they would be used for patrolling, since the number of troops would be insufficient for that purpose. A more useful function would be a Quick Reaction Force to bail out ANSF units if they got into trouble during specific operations. There would be either one or two major US bases: Regional Command-East in Bagram, and a possible second base at Regional Command-South at Kandahar. This number of troops is similar to US troop levels in 2005-2007.
President Obama's preference
It is now President Obama's responsibility to make the final decision. While the decision has not been made, his preference has been reported in a number of articles. All reports suggest he prefers a smaller number, fewer than 10,000 troops.
Fox News reports that the president's preferred option calls for fewer than 10,000 troops:
The White House is not considering any option that would leave more than 10,000 American troops in Afghanistan beyond 2014.
The Obama administration plans on keeping 6,000 to 9,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014, fewer than previously reported, and will confine most of them to fortified garrisons near the capital, leaving Afghan troops largely without American advisors in the field to fight a still-powerful insurgency.
The Washington Post reports that a level as low as 2,500 troops is being considered:
Some in the administration are pressing for a force that could be as small as 2,500, arguing that a light touch would be the most constructive way to cap the costly, unpopular war.
Al Jazeera and Reuters report that the option of withdrawing all troops, or the "zero option," is also being considered:
Asked about consideration of a so-called zero-option once the NATO combat mission ends at the end of 2014, [U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser] Rhodes said: "That would be an option that we would consider."
A final decision is not expected for several months.
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