ITALIA ΔΕΙΤΕ ΕΝΑ ΧΩΡΙΟ ΣΤΗΝ PESKARA DEL TRONDO ΠΟΥ ΕΧΕΙ ΚΑΤΑΣΤΡΑΦΗ ΟΛΟΣΚΕΡΩΣ!

The Kurds continue to pursue their goal of a contiguous territory in northern Syria

Rojava's Sustainability and the PKK's Regional Strategy

Fabrice Balanche

August 24, 2016

As the Kurds continue to pursue their goal of a contiguous territory in northern Syria, various nonmilitary factors will determine whether their nascent statelet is viable in the long term, including a host of demographic, economic, water, and oil issues.

Although it is still difficult to predict the future of Syria as a whole, the existence of an increasingly autonomous Kurdish region along the country's northern frontier has become a reality. For now, the boundaries of this "Rojava" remain blurred and might be different from those officially claimed by the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD). Yet the group's ongoing efforts to expand and merge its cantons reflect a firm commitment to gathering Syria's Kurds into an economically viable statelet that extends tantalizingly close to the Mediterranean Sea -- a prospect that could also advance the goals of its parent organization in Turkey, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

Click on map to view high-resolution version.

KURDISH POPULATION BARELY A MAJORITY IN ROJAVA

Since its January 2015 victory in Kobane, the PYD has continued to expand its territory. Most of this expansion has come at the expense of the Islamic State (IS), but the Kurds have also seized areas from other rebels in the Azaz corridor (see "Kurdish Forces Bolster Assad in Aleppo") and from the Syrian army in Hasaka. Even if these areas are only a few square miles in size, they are nonetheless strategically important; for example, Hasaka is a provincial capital, so any neighborhoods gained there are significant.

From the homogeneously Kurdish areas of Afrin, Kobane, and Qamishli, the PYD has set out to conquer mixed Arab-Kurdish territories and even some non-Kurdish areas. The group's ultimate aim is to establish territorial contiguity between its Kurdish strongholds, a goal that it furthered by taking Tal Abyad in spring 2015 and Manbij earlier this month (technically, the Manbij offensive was conducted by the mixed Arab-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, but the Kurds dominate that coalition). The rationale for the February conquest of al-Shadadi in southern Hasaka province -- a non-Kurdish territory -- was to control nearby oil wells and cut the Islamic State's road between Mosul and Raqqa.

Click on map to view high-resolution version.

Today, the PYD controls a territory in which about 2 million people live but only 60 percent are Kurdish (see PolicyWatch 2528, "Ethnic Cleansing Threatens Syria's Unity"). In the eastern Jazira canton (aka Cizire) and the central Kobane canton, Kurds constitute a slight majority of the population (55 percent). In the western Afrin district (an official Syrian administrative division), the population is nearly 100 percent Kurdish, but the PYD's maps of Rojava indicate that the "Afrin canton" will eventually incorporate Azaz, Jarabulus, northern al-Bab, and northern Manbij districts -- an outcome that would dilute the Kurdish population share to around 30 percent. Presumably, the PYD will not try to conquer the Arab and Turkmen territories of Azaz and Jarabulus in the next few months, since they are a low strategic priority at the moment and too sensitive for Turkey; just yesterday, Ankara launched new military operations in the Jarabulus area.

For demographic and strategic reasons, the Kurds also have no desire to attack Raqqa, the capital of the so-called IS "caliphate," at least not until they are able to link Afrin and Kobane. If IS begins to pose a serious threat to Rojava from Raqqa, the Kurds might launch an offensive there, as they did against al-Shadadi when local IS forces threatened Hasaka. But al-Shadadi is fifteen times less populated than Raqqa, so the calculus would likely be different.

Click on map to view high-resolution version.

ETHNIC CLEANSING?

The more the PYD expands its territory, the more it will have to integrate non-Kurdish populations. This is particularly true in the Manbij area between the Euphrates River and Afrin, where Kurds represent less than a quarter of the population. But the PYD seems set on the goal of connecting the cantons, and the group's leaders believe that various "Kurdization" efforts could help bring a large part of the population under their banner. Village names and maps published under the French Mandate indicate that a significant proportion of locals who are officially classified as Arabs actually have Kurdish origins. In the face of PYD domination, these Arabic-speaking Kurds could conveniently choose to reconnect with their Kurdish roots. Moreover, the demography of the area may be substantially modified if the Arab refugees who once lived there do not return; Kurdish refugees are much more likely to return given the PYD's ascension. This is particularly true in Tal Abyad district, where Arabs who supported IS are persona non grata.

Unfortunately, the Kurds might also choose to overcome their demographic weakness in some parts of Rojava by engaging in ethnic cleansing or allying with Arab tribes that want to side with the strongest player in order to exact revenge. For example, many tribes want nothing more than to eliminate rivals that have sided with IS; this is the strategy of the Shammar clan led by the Sheikh Hamidi Daham al-Hadi in southeast Hasaka. The PYD also hopes to attract some of the one million Kurds currently living in Damascus and Aleppo. For that to happen, however, it would need to greatly improve the bad economic situation in Rojava.

WATER SCARCITY

Prior to the war, the Assad regime deliberately left Kurdish areas underdeveloped, mainly as a way of spurring the Kurds to migrate to big cities where they could be Arabized more easily. Similarly, the Jazira region was treated as a kind of "internal colony" devoted solely to grain and cotton production. Today, agriculture there remains very traditional and has suffered dramatically from water scarcity since the turn of the century. Overconsumption of water on the Turkish side of the border has reduced supplies in northern Syria, and Assad regime made no serious attempt to solve the problem. Unlike in the Euphrates Valley, where farmers receive cheap and abundant water due to state irrigation projects, farms in Jazira are supplied by private wells. In the years leading up to the war, drought and the tripling price of fuel for motorized pumps caused a significant reduction in Hasaka's cultivated areas (see PolicyWatch 2622, "Water Issues Are Crucial to Stability in Syria's Euphrates Valley").

An extensive Tigris River irrigation project was planned for 2008, but the lack of political will in Damascus and the eventual uprising prevented its implementation. After the war, water scarcity may be the main problem facing Rojava because agriculture is the local population's main source of income. Even if administrators prioritize the Tigris pump station, they will need to broker an agreement with Iraq and Turkey to tap into the river. Bashar al-Assad reached such an agreement with Ankara in 2008, but now all the parameters have changed.

In addition, Kurdish control of Tishrin Dam on the Euphrates could present opportunities to develop irrigation in western Rojava, which also suffers from shortages. Yet any such efforts would likely create problems with Arab farmers living downstream.

ROJAVA OIL IS NOT YET EXPORTABLE

The presence of oil wells in Jazira is an asset for Rojava; before the war, the oil fields at al-Malikiyah and al-Shadadi produced around one-third of the country's 380,000 barrels/day of crude. Since then, that figure has collapsed due to lack of maintenance and closed pipelines. Nevertheless, oil has become a major source of revenue for the Rojava administration, and it gives them the potential for future energy autonomy. Down the road, Rojava could export most of its production if it finds an adequate transportation solution.

Direct export across Turkey seems impossible for political reasons. If the original pipeline to the Syrian coastal terminal of Banias were reopened, Rojava could eventually sell oil to the Syrian government, but Damascus would surely oppose paying full price for "its own oil." Alternatively, the Syrian Kurds could use the Iraqi Kurdish pipeline to Turkey, though that would require reaching an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The party currently in power there, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), has very bad relations with the PYD due to decades-long tensions with the PKK; the Iraqi and Turkish groups follow entirely different ideologies and are led by strong leaders who detest each other. Partly as a result, trade between the Syrian Kurds and the KRG has been erratic. These obstacles could cause long-term problems for Rojava because the KRG is its only land connection with the outside world besides the Turkish border (which is closed) and the Euphrates Valley (which IS controls).

A PKK CORRIDOR TO THE MEDITERRANEAN?

The oil situation highlights the main barrier to Rojava's sustainability: its isolation. Kurdish society is very resilient and can accept Spartan living conditions, but many people have been leaving the PYD's areas of control. To stop the population hemorrhage, the PYD will need to develop the economy, which requires the free movement of goods to and from other countries. Yet relations with Turkey and the KDP may not improve anytime soon, and the timeline for eradicating IS and stabilizing the Euphrates is uncertain.

Click on map to view high-resolution version.

Therefore, the only alternative may be to establish a western connection with Aleppo and the regime-controlled zone, which would require the PYD to accelerate its timeline for creating a territorial link between Afrin and Kobane. In this regard, it is important to remember that the PYD is the PKK's offspring and shares its regional goals. Extending Rojava all the way to the Mediterranean could facilitate both independence for Turkish Kurdistan and greater integration with the KRG, assuming Washington can eventually pressure the KRG into opening its border with Rojava. To be sure, the PYD has not mentioned any ambition to reach the Mediterranean, and bridging the seventy-kilometer gap between Rojava's claimed western border and the coast would entail great obstacles. Not only is the area populated entirely by non-Kurds, but Turkey and whoever controls the Alawite heartland would object strenuously. Yet at least some Kurds no doubt dream of establishing a Kurdish port, however distant the prospect.

Finally, the war could usher in other territorial outcomes that further the PYD/PKK regional project, such as an Alawite state on the coast and/or a Sunni Arab state further east. Official maps of Rojava already envision a western boundary that runs all the way to the edge of the Alawite heartland, so establishing friendly economic relations and coastal access privileges with such entities in the long term is not out of the question. 

Fabrice Balanche, an associate professor and research director at the University of Lyon 2, is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute.

Saudi Soldiers Panic After Being Ambushed By Guerrilla Fighters

A mobile patrol from the Saudi Arabian military is ambushed by Houthi Rebels. They immediately panic, get into a brutal armored vehicle accident, and die.

While on a mounted patrol in the South Western city of Najran, near the boarder of Yemen, Saudi Arabian troops are ambushed. The driver of the lead vehicle immediately begins to panic, and loses control of his vehicle. This results in a collision between the two vehicles, causing the Saudi troops to be trapped under heavy direct fire.

Capitalizing on this, the Houthi rebels kick up the intensity of their ambush by starting to close with the Saudi vehicles. Within minutes, both vehicles are burning, and their crews are killed while attempting to abandon then. This is just another great example of the power of Guerrilla Warfare.

ΣΥΓΚΡΟΥΣΗ ΠΛΟΙΩΝ ΣΤΟΝ ΕΛΛΗΣΠΟΝΤΟ--General cargo ship Guler collided with bulk carrier Piri Reis in Dardanelles Strait

The general cargo ship Guler collided with bulk carrier Piri Reis in Dardanelles Strait. The both ships were proceeding in southern direction on crossing routes, but due to lack of communication and violation of ColReg collided near Erenkoy in Canakkale Province, Turkey. The ships suffered damages and underwater breaches, but remained afloat and without danger of sinking. The incident was reported to local authorities and to the vessels was ordered to anchor at Erenkoy anchorage for further repairs and special survey. Fortunately during the accident there were no injured people and no water pollution. The investigation for the root cause of the accident is under way. The ships will resume voyages after inspection. The general cargo ship Guler (IMO: 7924334) has overall length of 80.00 m, moulded beam of 12.00 m and maximum draft of 4.50 m. The deadweight of the vessel is 2,421 DWT and the gross tonnage is 1,581 GRT. The ship was built in 1980 by Detlef Hegemann Rolandwerft in Germany. The general cargo ship Guler is classified by Bulgarian Shipping Register and is operated by Turkish company Deniz Feneri Uluslararasi. During the accident the vessel was en route from Istanbul to Durres, Albania. The bulk carrier Piri Reis (IMO: 9146998) was en route from Nikolayev, Ukraine to Libya. The ship has overall length of 172.00 m, moulded beam of 27.00 m and maximum draft of 9.50 m. The deadweight of the ship is 28,515 DWT and the gross tonnage is 18,005 GRT. The bulk carrier Piri Reis was built in 1997 by Tsuneshi Shipbuilding in Fukuyama, Japan. The owner and operator of the ship is FSM Shipping and Transport.

earthquake in Castelluccio, Europe,Italy

Πολλοί εκ των νεκρών έχασαν τη ζωή τους στο χωριό Πεσκάρα ντελ Τρόντο, το οποίο σχεδόν ισοπεδώθηκε και οι αρχές εκφράζουν φόβους ότι ο τελικός απολογισμός θυμάτων θα είναι μεγαλύτερος.

Τους 50 έφθασαν οι νεκροί στην Ιταλία από τον καταστροφικό σεισμό που έπληξε το κεντρικό τμήμα της χώρας, ενώ δεκάδες άνθρωποι αγνοούνται, με πολλούς από αυτούς να βρίσκονται κάτω από σωρούς ερειπίων.

Τον τελευταίο απολογισμό μετέδωσε η ιταλική εφημερίδα La Stampa.

Σκληρό πλήγμα για Πεσκάρα ντελ Τρόντο - Αματρίτσε - Ακούμολι

Πολλοί εκ των νεκρών έχασαν τη ζωή τους στο χωριό Πεσκάρα ντελ Τρόντο, το οποίο σχεδόν ισοπεδώθηκε και οι αρχές εκφράζουν φόβους ότι ο τελικός απολογισμός θυμάτων θα είναι μεγαλύτερος.

Μεγάλο μέρος της πόλης Αματρίτσε έχει μετατραπεί επίσης σε σωρό ερειπίων, ενώ εκφράζονται φόβοι ότι τετραμελής οικογένεια έχει ξεκληριστεί στο Ακούμολι.

Ο σεισμός έπληξε την κεντρική Ιταλία στις 03.36 τα ξημερώματα, 100 χιλιόμετρα βορειοανατολικά της Ρώμης.

Το εστιακό βάθος ήταν σχετικά μικρό και κυμαινόταν στα 10 χιλιόμετρα. Η δόνηση ξύπνησε μνήμες Απριλίου 2009 στην Λ'Άκουϊλα, όταν είχαν χάσει τη ζωή τους συνολικά 309 άνθρωποι από ισχυρό σεισμό.

Το επίκεντρο της δόνησης ήταν κοντά στο Ακούμολι.

Στη Ρώμη υπήρξαν κτήρια τα οποία «κουνήθηκαν» για περισσότερα από 20 δευτερόλεπτα, καθώς η περιοχή που επλήγη «άγγιζε» εδάφη των περιφερειών Ούμπρια, Λάτσιο και Μάρκε.

Η σεισμική δόνηση έγινε αισθητή από την Μπολόνια στον βορρά μέχρι την Νάπολι στον νότο. Στην Πεσκάρα ντελ Τρόντο, τουλάχιστον 10 άνθρωποι έχασαν τη ζωή τους, μεταξύ αυτών και παιδιά. Είκοσι άνθρωποι μεταφέρθηκαν σε νοσοκομεία.

Τα σωστικά συνεργεία προσπαθούν ακόμη να φθάσουν στο απομονωμένο χωριό Περάκια ντι Άκουα Σάντα Τέρμε.

Ρέντσι: Κανένας σεισμοπαθής μόνος του

Δεν πρόκειται να μείνει κανένας μόνος του και αβοήθητος, δήλωσε ο πρωθυπουργός της Ιταλίας Ματέο Ρέντσι, σε τηλεοπτικό μήνυμά του, με το οποίο εξέφρασε τη συμπαράστασή του στις οικογένειες των θυμάτων και τους άστεγους που προκάλεσε ο σεισμός που έπληξε τις πρώτες πρωινές ώρες την κεντρική Ιταλία.

«Σε στιγμές μεγάλης δυσκολίας η Ιταλία δείχνει το καλυτερό της πρόσωπό», πρόσθεσε ο κ. Ρέντσι, ο οποίος ευχαρίστησε για τη γενναιόδωρη συμβολή της την υπηρεσία πολιτικής προστασίας, αλλά και το σύνολο των εθελοντών.

«Πρέπει να προετοιμαστούμε για την κατάσταση έκτακτης ανάγκης των επόμενων ημερών, αλλά τώρα η απόλυτη προτεραιότητα είναι να σωθούν ζωες σκάβοντας στα συντρίμμια», δήλωσε ακόμη ο Ιταλός πρωθυπουργός, ο οποίος ανακοίνωσε ότι αργά το απόγευμα θα επισκεφθεί τις περιοχές που επληγησαν από τον εγκέλαδο.

Δραματική έκκληση απυύθηνε ο δήμαρχος της πόλης Αματρίτσε, Σέρτζιο Πιρότσι, μιλώντας στην κρατικη΄τηλεόραση, τονίζοντας πως η κατάσταση είναι δραματική και πως τα 3/4 της πόλης του έχουν καταστραφεί.

'Οι δρόμοι πρόσβασης στην πόλη έχουν καταστραφεί, απευθύνω έκκληση για την απελευθέρωσή τους. Πάνω από την μισή πόλη έχει εξαφανιστεί, υπάρχουν άνθρωποι κάτω από τα συντρίμμια. Υπάρχει χώρος για την προσγείωση ελικοπτέρων διάσωσης, αλλά προτεραιότητά μας είναι να ανοίξουν οι δρόμοι'. Αυτή είναι η δραματική έκκληση του δημάρχου της πόλης Αματρίτσε, Σέρτζιο Πιρότσι. 'Προσπαθούμε με κάθε τρόπο να φέρουμε τις πρώτες βοήθειες, αλλά δουλεύουμε χωρίς φως' εξήγησε τις πρώτες πρωινές ώρες ο Πιρότσι στο Rainews24.
'Η κατάσταση είναι δραματική. Οι νεκροί είναι τόσοι πολλοί, δεν μπορώ να υπολογίσω προς το παρόν. Οι έρευνες συνεχίζονται και η κατάσταση είναι πολύ δύσκολη. 'Η μισή πόλη έχει καταστραφεί και ψάχνουμε μέσα στα χαλάσματα. Έχουμε ήδη βγάλει αρκετούς νεκρούς, αλλά δεν ξέρουμε πόσοι υπάρχουν ακόμη εκεί κάτω. Ακούγονται φωνές κάτω από τα ερείπια, πρέπει να σώσουμε τους ανθρώπους' πρόσθεσε.

Ο δήμαρχος του Ακούμολι, μιας άλλης πόλης που επλήγη από το σεισμό στην περιοχή Λάτιο, δήλωσε πως δεν υπάρχει κανένα ίχνος ζωής από μια τετραμελή οικογένεια, μεταξύ των οποίων και δύο παιδιά που είναι παγιδευμένοι κάτω απότα συντρίμμια.
'Με το φως της ημέρας, βλέπουμε ότι η κατάσταση είναι ακόμη χειρότερη από αυτή που φοβόμασταν. Πολλά κτίρια έχουν καταρρεύσει, υπάρχουν άνθρωποι παγιδευμένοι στα ερείπια και δεν υπάρχει ίχνος ζωής' δήλωσε.

Lava from Hawaii volcano flows into ocean, tourists flock to vivid display

Tourists are warned to keep their distance if they want to keep their shoes, boat tours serve as perfect viewing platform

Lava from Kilauea, an active volcano on Hawaii's Big Island, flows into the ocean as seen from a boat off the coast of Volcanoes National Park near Kalapana, Hawaii. (AP Photo/ Caleb Jones)

VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK, Hawaii — For the first time in three years, lava from a volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island has crept down miles of mountainside and is dripping into the Pacific Ocean — where it’s creating new land and a stunning show for visitors.

Thousands of people from around the world have swarmed Volcanoes National Park by land, sea and air to view the lava. They’re also hearing and smelling it.

The billowy, bright-orange lava crackles and hisses, and reeks of sulfur and scorched earth, as it oozes across the rugged landscape and eventually off steep, seaside cliffs. When the hot rocks hit the water, they expel plumes of steam and gas — and sometimes explode, sending chunks of searing debris flying through the air.

The 2,000-degree molten rock is from Kilauea, one of the world’s most active volcanoes. Its Puu Oo vent began erupting in the 1980s and periodically pushes enough lava seaward that people can access it.

Reaching the flow requires a boat, a helicopter or strong legs — the hike to the entry point, where the lava meets the sea, is 10 miles roundtrip on a gravel road surrounded by miles of treacherous, hard lava rock.

Pablo Aguayo, of Santiago, Chile, took a sunrise boat tour of the flow earlier this month.

“It’s pretty amazing,” he said. “You start in the middle of the ocean in the darkness, and you end up in this beautiful lava falls.”

Aguayo said he could feel the lava’s heat, and it smelled “super funny.”

“It’s like welding something,” he said. “We have many volcanoes back home in Chile. We have plenty. But nothing like this.”

His tour boat was a 12.8-metre aluminum catamaran operated by Lava Ocean Tours owner Shane Turpin, who said he navigates to within a few yards of the entry point for the best view.

On Aug. 9, a second branch of lava started to spill into the ocean, giving Turpin’s passengers a look at two lava flows about 183 metres apart.

Hot lava spills from an active volcano in Hawaii. The erupton has created 500 acres of new land. (AP Photo)

“Just to have one drip (of lava) touching the ocean is awesome,” Turpin said as people snapped photos of the dual flows. “But to get a show like you’re getting this morning, well, it sets the bar pretty high for a second trip.”

Volcanoes National Park has seen an increase of about 1,000 to 1,500 visitors per day since the current lava flow reached the sea, boosting attendance to about 6,000 people daily, officials said.

Park spokeswoman Jessica Ferracane warns the area can be dangerous.

Hikers can get close enough that the soles of their shoes get hot. Also, the area is flanked by hardened lava rock as sharp as glass. Many people have suffered lacerations while trying to cross the jagged landscape, Ferracane said.

“Everybody wants to see the lava flow, but not everybody should be hiking out there,” she said.

Additionally, when the lava reaches the ocean, it reacts with the saltwater and produces harmful hydrochloric acid, which wafts into the air, said Janet Babb, a U.S. Geological Survey geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

As it streams into the water, the lava creates a new landscape in a matter of moments. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Puu Oo flow alone has created about 202 hectares of new land since it began erupting. The flow that began in May has created about 8 new acres. Most of Kilauea’s activity has been nonexplosive, but a 1924 eruption hurled ash and 9,000-kilogram rocks into the sky and left a man dead.

The 1983 Puu Oo vent eruption resulted in lava fountains soaring over 1,500 feet high. In the decades since, the lava flow has buried 48 square miles of land and destroyed many homes.

In 2008, after a series of small earthquakes rattled the island, Kilauea’s summit crater opened and spewed lava and rock over 75 acres of the mountain, damaging the nearby visitor overlook.

It’s hard to predict when the volcano will inflate or when the current flow will stop, Babb said. It could slow down any day or keep cascading into the sea for months.

Liberian Clown Car Gets Lit Up – They Use Each Other As Cover

A Liberian militia group decides to pack their entire unit into one technical vehicle. When it gets lit up, they use each other as cover.

When you get over confident in your units ability, you tend to make some stupid mistakes. I think this is probably the first time in the history of warfare that confidence lead to using one of your buddies as a source of cover.

What appears to be an entire unit of Liberian militiamen load into a single technical vehicle. Maybe they were trying to offer the gunner some moral support, but all they really managed to accomplish was dying.

Pay close attention to the guy in the yellow shirt. When the return fire starts, he uses the guy in the wife beater as cover.

A boy with the messi shirt on was found in Kerkuk with a bomb tied around his chest !