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Iraq, ISIL and the region's choices

Even if ISIL is halted before it reaches Baghdad, it has left virtually every regional actor scrambling for a response. Last updated: 12 Jun 2014 18:13

Shashank Joshi Shashank Joshi is a Research Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London and a PhD candidate at Harvard University. He holds Masters degrees from Cambridge and Harvard Universities. He specialises in the international politics of South Asia and the Middle East. RSS Aaron Stein Aaron Stein is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a doctoral candidate at King’s College, London and a researcher specializing in proliferation in the Middle East at the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies. RSS

Iraqi city of Mosul fell to ISIL forces within hours of their attack [AFP]

In a matter of days, Iraq's political calendar and map have been rolled back by a decade. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has brought the Iraqi state to the point of collapse, defeating 30,000 Iraqi soldiers with fewer than 800 fighters in mere hours.  It has bolstered its own power and status, further challenging its erstwhile parent organisation, al-Qaeda, and tightened the connection between the Syrian and Iraqi battlefields, hedging its losses in one territory with advances in the other. It has successfully carved out a jihadist proto-state that now covers Tikrit, less than 100 miles from Baghdad, and appears to be contesting areas on the capital's edge - covering, in total, a third of Iraq. These remarkable events present a series of challenges to four of Iraq’s neighbours - Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria - and, additionally, to the assumptions and sustainability of US policy in the region. ISIL's choices Can ISIL defend its gains? Most likely, yes. In Mosul it seized large quantities of US-supplied military equipment, reportedly stolen over $400m in Iraqi currency from the city's banks, and freed thousands of prisoners, many of whom are likely to join the insurgency. Its ability to hold out for over four months in the western city of Fallujah, forcing the government to resort to indiscriminate shelling in the absence of sufficient airpower, is an indication of ISIL's defence capabilities. However, it remains unclear how much assistance ISIL has also received from outside. Web Exclusive: ISIL threatens Samarra shrine ISIL's military offensives were almost certainly facilitated by smaller militant groups such as the Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order, an organisation of former Baathist Iraqi army officers. As ISIL gains strength, it may command the loyalty of more such combat-proficient groups, thereby increasing its reach; it may also find conflicts of interests with these allies of convenience, particularly if it persists in its brutal behaviour. What is ISIL's next step? Although it is already seeking to expand its territorial reach beyond Tikrit, its ability to capture the capital itself should not be exaggerated. Whereas the government had neglected the defence of Mosul, Baghdad is better prepared. The capital also has a much larger portion of Shia Muslims than Mosul, Kirkuk, or Tikrit, so that ISIL will lack the same degree of tacit or informal support in many areas. The greater short-term danger is that ISIL will enter Samarra, a city housing holy Shia sites whose bombing in 2006 by ISIL's earlier incarnation, al-Qaeda in Iraq, catalysed a nationwide civil war. For ISIL, catalysing sectarian violence by provoking Shia reprisals would not only serve its ideological objectives but also push vulnerable Iraq Sunnis into its arms. Baghdad's response Baghdad's ability to respond effectively is in serious doubt. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has threatened to arm Shia militias to generate a counterweight to ISIL. This risks a widening of the very same sectarian divisions - and increasing the long-standing disaffection with the government among a large number of Iraqi Sunnis - that eased ISIL's successes in Sunni-majority areas over the past four months. Even the US government, whose arms Maliki urgently requires, responded to ISIL's gains by castigating the PM for his failure to reform in this regard. Maliki, who watched his forces dissolve in the face of ISIL's advances, resembles a semi-tragic figure. He has issued desperate pleas for help to Kurdish militias called Peshmerga who fight for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), a semi-autonomous province that has been at odds with Baghdad over oil exports and the allocation of federal revenue (the Kurds claim they are owed $6bn). Yet Kurdish involvement would present its own longer-term challenges to Maliki, not least weakening his bargaining position with the province. Kurdish forces already claim to be in full control of Kirkuk. Although US arms deliveries will be expedited, the Iraqi security forces will struggle to incorporate more advanced weapons systems on a timeline that would change the course of the fighting. This is why, as early as March, Maliki has been secretly requesting US airstrikes against ISIL targets; Washington has so far rebuffed these requests, although further territorial gains by ISIL would place unbearable pressure on this policy. It is too soon to judge the effectiveness of the early Iraqi government airstrikes on Mosul on June 12, but it will depend on the accuracy and reliability of Iraqi intelligence, as well as the nature of any anti-air weaponry in ISIL's possession. Turkey spillover For Turkey, the conflict has already spilled over the border. On the first day of ISIL's seizure of Mosul, 31 Turkish truck drivers were taken hostage. And on the second day, ISIL stormed Ankara's consulate in Mosul and detained 49 Turkish citizens - including the Consulate General, Ozturk Yilmaz, a former advisor to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There is little immediate prospect of Turkish intervention, unless ISIL begins executing hostages; however the group has far more to gain by seeking ransoms, a strategy it has pursued to great effect across the border in Syria. Some reports suggest that the hostages have been moved to the residence of the ISIL-sponsored Mosul governor, in possible preparation for their release. Ankara, which has reportedly sought to invoke NATO's involvement when ISIL threatened the Suleyman Shah Tomb in Aleppo in March, has now called an emergency NATO meeting. Turkey will be eager to persuade its NATO allies to take the threat from Iraq as seriously as it does, not least because its ability to act entirely independently over the border would be limited. Iran already stretched For Iran, the possible entrenchment of an exceptionally radical and heavily-armed Sunni jihadist group on its western flank, threatening the collapse of a key Iranian ally, is a matter of grave concern. One Iranian MP observed  that the large number of Shia holy sites in Iraq - notably at Karbala, Najaf, and Samarra - would be "red lines" for Iran, should they be targeted by ISIL. Others - including Iranian officials - have repeatedly alluded to the prospect of direct Iranian intervention ("whatever it takes") in Iraq.  In the short-term, Iran is highly unlikely to deploy troops. It would first intensify support for the Iraqi security forces and then send small numbers of advisers from the Revolutionary Guards. However, Iran is now stretched across multiple fronts, and a more serious commitment in Iraq, might come at the expense of its assistance to Damascus. Hezbollah is likely to be even further thinned out, given its prominent role in a number of Syrian battlefronts; it almost certainly lacks the manpower to conduct a meaningful intervention in Iraq. In addition, Iraq's most senior Shia figure, Ayatollah Sistani, reportedly chastised Iran's involvement in the region's conflict, arguing that "Iran acts and Arab Shia pay the price". This hardly precludes Iranian involvement, but it will influence the form it takes. Impact on Syria In the short-term, ISIL's gains will reinforce their efforts in Syria, a front where they have been squeezed eastward by rival rebel groups over the past four months. However, the broader impact may be on the calculus of external allies. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US all view ISIL's growing power with alarm. Inside Story - Iraq on the brink? The Assad regime has hitherto avoided targeting ISIL, allowing it to remain in control of key areas, on the assumption that the group has weakened more moderate rebel factions and reinforced the regime's message that the opposition is dominated by jihadist actors. It is possible, though by no means certain, that Tehran will apply pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to engage ISIL more directly and effectively. Yet at a broader level, the growth of ISIL strengthens Assad's spurious claim that his own state and regime is the only bulwark against jihadist groups. Much depends, however, on how the United States, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and other rebel backers respond. The most important question is the net effect on US calculations, and whether the Obama administration will reverse course and decide that the only way to contain ISIL is to shore up moderate rebels along the lines proposed by former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford: "Far greater material support and training so that [the Free Syrian Army] can mount an effective guerrilla war", including the provision of surface-to-air missiles. On the other hand, the shared US, Iranian and Saudi interest in ISIL might persuade the White House of the imperative for a new peace process - a Geneva III - in which counter-terrorism objectives supersede the democratic transition, rendering the US more inclined to push for a transition on terms favourable to Assad, Iran, and Russia. (See, for instance, one proposed Iranian plan for Syria). The US and Iran held high-level bilateral nuclear talks recently, and the prospect and anticipation of a nuclear deal might increase the immediate appeal of cooperating with Iran on Syria. Despite Saudi Arabia's own purportedly softening stance towards Iran and its serious concern over its own vulnerability to the jihadist resurgence, such a conciliatory approach would naturally be anathema to the US' regional allies, who argue that ISIL is best defeated through strengthening its rival rebel faction within Syria. A third option would be for the US to stick to its present course - a small trickle of arms and training to small, trusted rebel groups - while dealing with the immediate threat in Iraq through accelerated assistance to Baghdad. The danger of such an incremental and passive approach is that, as the situation deteriorates further, it becomes harder and harder to contain ISIL and salvage what is left of Iraq's crumbling security forces. The administration may split the difference by conducting limited military strikes in Iraq against ISIL, while leaving its Syria strategy untouched.  It would be tempting to believe that, just as al-Qaeda in Iraq wore itself out during the Iraqi civil war, ISIL will run into diminishing returns; but today there are no US troops to protect those Sunni tribes who wish to confront ISIL, and no "surge" should be expected. Even if ISIL is halted before it reaches the capital, it has left virtually every regional actor scrambling for a response. Shashank Joshi is a Research Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London and a PhD candidate at Harvard University. He holds Masters degrees from Cambridge and Harvard Universities. He specialises in the international politics of South Asia and the Middle East. Aaron Stein is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a doctoral candidate at King's College, London and a researcher specialising in proliferation in the Middle East at the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Source: Al Jazeera

Code "Egemen": The plan to invade Turkey in Thrace

Code "Egemen": The plan to invade Turkey in Thrace

• The top secret project "Hegemon" for the event that Greece extend beyond 6 nautical miles of territorial waters
• Assault in the Fourth Army Corps of Bulgaria, unorthodox war challenge between the Aircraft Episode Lesvos and Chios

Written by Manos Iliadis

In a recent report on violations of the Turks, it was reported that the MoD initiative, D. Avramopoulos, put the issue to the Turkish counterpart Ismet Yilmaz contacting them, and then invited the Turkish ambassador in Athens asking him to convey the views of the Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. 

The result was the same day to record 21 violations by Turkish aircraft, which were accompanied by a "friendly" deal with the Greek Minister of the Turkish counterpart, and a promise to be in the future for a mutual exchange of visits between the two ministers in order to defuse the tension, etc. 

The approach

The inefficiency above demarche due to the fact that the Greek side seems willing to address the self-evident fact that the Turkish challenges are structural element of Turkish policy towards our country, which changes neither with zeibekika the ineffable individual, once ypedythi Foreign Minister and then Prime Minister of Greece, nor the subsequent godparenthood or the decision to "strategic cooperation" and joint cabinet meetings and, of course, nor with the famous (American inspired) "Confidence Building Measures", which the Turks signed without ever implementing it. 

An account statement that this policy prevents any deepening of our relations with Turkey demonstrates that this argument does not hold water. With this policy, the Turkey consolidated level impressions unreasonable demands of the international public opinion and maintain with the challenges of the initiative and the potential for escalation at a time of its own choosing and culminating a hot episode with unpredictable consequences. 
The changes in the rules of international relations and the balance changes in the international system over the past two decades, during which time there was a series of conflicts in order to dissolve the States, changing schemes, etc., have made ​​the international environment particularly volatile and dangerous especially in our region. Recent developments in the Arab world and further instability resulting from the events of Ukraine also made ​​it imperative to maintain the cohesion of NATO, so any attempt to disturbance are highly undesirable. 

This item attaches to Greece to bring a another policy to the Turkish aggression. And this is the publication of Turkish designs against Greece, which leaked in 2010, after an internal dispute in the Turkish political system. 

Greece In these plans, leaked around the Ergenekon case, made ​​famous by the disclosure of business plans 'Sledgehammer' and navy addendum to the draft "Suga". Through these Turkish military planned to undermine the regime Erdogan, causing an unsettled situation with Greece, with provocations which provided even shooting down a Turkish aircraft themselves Turks, which would it placed in Greece. 
Notably here was that while the Sledgehammer case revealed a normal business plan, the Turks showed no particular concern about the disclosure of their plans, leading to concerns about whether the leak was unpredictable or not. 

Conditions Ankara to implement the movements of

one of the conclusions drawn from elements of the plan that the site would not be mentioned here is the fact that the Turks set certain conditions for the implementation of their project. 
Principal among these is the existence, in the immediate environment and the international community, favorable conditions for Turkey and "improving the level of understanding by the international community to the particularities of Turkey." 

Estimates

In any case, the Turks do not seem to balk before the possibility to implement their plans, which shows their appreciation that "after the initial shock, they will suffer the countries of the region and international organizations will intervene for a ceasefire," hence the need to reduce the time of operation of the undertaking in 3-4 days. 
Another finding is that Greece is not going to extend its territorial waters before the Cyprus problem, because in this case the Cyprus will be "collateral" in the hands of the Turks. 
basics of Turkish policy in this case is to keep the casus belli as argument standing any Turkish offensive action in the future and create tension in the Aegean, scalable depending on the circumstances, up to Turkey to find this advantageous position, ensuring tolerance of the international community for the Turkish demands in the region. 
intended From this apparent tension in the Aegean our objection that the Turkish provocations can not stop with phone calls, CBMs, dances and other ... festivals. 

How would crush the border troops Erdogan! 
The (staged) attack by gunboats in the Aegean

The Greek services, including the department of SS (Interdisciplinary Directorate of Military Intelligence) had information on Mai another very important business, under a project called «Egemen" (Hegemon) completely unknown to the Greek public. Note that «Egemen» was the name of the open project, while the secret name was «ERTUGRUL», from the name of an Ottoman captain of artillery, who, during the First World War, challenged with the fire-battery of the kastellorizo ​​and precipitated large English warship ... 

Specifically, the Greek services acquired in October 2010 the first information about the project Egemen 1 Army (Istanbul) of the Turkish army, which dealt Seminar on operational projects conducted at the headquarters of the Army in time 5-7 March 2003. Until May 2011 the Greek services already collect and evaluate all primary information material of this seminar, which dealt with the first address internal threats (the rise of Islamists to power) and other operations against Greece in theater Ebro (area of responsibility of the 1st Army). 

material 253 pages

The entire information material was 253 pages, which, as mentioned in a newsletter, both confirms previous reports on the subject, and describes each detail the aggressive power of the Turks against Greece in Evros and ensure the rear area of the 1st Army. 

material included the time table of the seminar (15 pages) SECRET, presentation in Powerpoint (44 pages), also SECRECY of Enterprise Directorate of the 1st Army and, finally, the transcripts of eight cartridges (194 pages) which included discussions made ​​during the examination of how energy formations of the 1st Army. 
noted that the Seminar on the Draft Egemen (Ertugrul) involved 147 officers (26 senior and 121 above) of the General Staff of Land Forces, Navy, Aviation and the gendarmerie. Even in the Seminar attended as observers 15 other officers (three senior and 12 above), or a large set (162) and senior senior officers that only a conspiratorial action to overthrow the regime did not refer. 
purpose of the seminar was to improve existing plans and their annexes, in the light of the findings resulting from the Seminar.

As noted in the introduction of an information sheet, the importance of the material lies in the fact that it relates to real business plan of the 1st Army, which because of the nature of the terrain and the same organization of formations and other factors (eg exercises Turkish new structure of the land forces, etc.) is expected to remain broadly the same. 
Note: Any changes thereafter promptly identified, to our knowledge, during 2013, with a major change to refer to conduct offensive action from the sea in the southern area of the region of interest, etc., do not change significantly the backbone of the project. 

Essentially, the seminar included the evaluation of an alternative draft general plan business Egemen, which was written in 2000. Seminar The metepese later in design work, which is scheduled to take place immediately if the Greece make or show the intention to extend its territorial waters over 6 nautical miles. 
Figures from the plan that the Turkish power in Thrace is supportive of operations in the Aegean. Note that as a pretext for the implementation of Turkish designs provided the aeronautical challenge episode in between Lesvos and Chios (hypothetical harassment Turkish gunboats from Greek aircraft, if u the range of Turkish provocations, as is clear from our own experience and recently in Syria is infinite). 
's strategic objective of the company is to attack the weaknesses of the Fourth Army Corps, then overcoming the Greek defensive end position and destruction in parts of Greek forces in the east line Esimon - Abba! 

On discussions project were specific references to end the destruction of Greek forces to the region. One of them, who became the commander of the 2nd Army Corps to the commander of the 1st Army General Cetin Dogan, reads: "A business that will take place in Thrace, Ms. specific territorial invasion will cause in the short term intervention the region's countries and organizations such as the EU and NATO. Evaluating all of the above, should the company take 3-4 days. Because of this, the objective of the firm rather than the squat crossings Makris and Circe, included in existing plans must be destroyed by attacks, the enemy is in the area until the area Abba - Esimon. " 
 Generally what is clear from the above seminar is that the company aims to entrapment and destruction of the bulk of the forces of the Fourth Army Corps, to enable it to exploit Turkey in the negotiations that will follow, with Greece watered thoroughly after crushing blow to the destruction of forces in Thrace to waive the right to extend its territorial waters and to accept any other requirement of the Turkish Aegean and Thrace. 

's description of the proposed project by Egemen business, referred in detail not value to the average reader, except for certain details which have their own importance. 

Specifically, the missions of the Turkish special forces provided by the plan states: 
"In the Fourth Army Corps will use lots of unorthodox war, which will penetrate Bulgaria, because the Greek forces do not have sufficient security measures in these areas. " 
immediately following is stated: 
"In the area of responsibility of the Fourth Army Corps no infrastructure support of Turkish enterprises unorthodox warfare", which confirms the information about the organization extremist elements of the Muslim minority in Thrace. 

How can Greece to stop their plans

What may, however, does Greece is to proceed in updating EU with elements of Greek services, and NATO, which, whatever the standard practice for avoiding an unimaginable conflict between two allied countries in this period is very sensitive to disturbances that could weaken the Atlantic Alliance. Note that Greece has already taken similar action with respect to violations of the airspace, providing long NATO radar image of the Aegean, which was not however result due to allegations of Turkish on the scope of the national our airspace etc. 

Challenges

With this information and given the history of Turkey, which is subject to a number of artificial challenges and provocative actions against neighboring countries, Greece could alter future Turkey's efforts to invoke one occasion which will cause the same, which will allow it to implement its plans. Anecdotal evidence for the Turkish plans against our country, some of which made ​​public today, is so overwhelming, that will certainly have a positive effect. 

Such information is not only a valuable weapon in wartime, but also an essential element of preserving peace by supporting policy objectives with proper use. The value of information is also only in their use and function effectively and not to preserve them for study by historians ... 

Source newspaper "Democracy"

ΩΡΑ ΓΙΑ ΣΠΟΡ

2014 World Cup: Angry protesters hurl rocks at TV studio in Copacabana

Δυστυχως η αναρχια και η βια εχει χτυπηση κοκινο και στην βραζιλια, και εισχωρησε και στον χωρο του αθλητισμου,και ολο αυτο εχει να κανη με το χρημα. Λεγετε οτι εχει σπαταληση πολλα λεφτα για την διοργανωση του παγκοσμιου κυπελου και ο κοσμος πειναη.

Και να φανταστη κανεις οπως λεγετε για την βραζιλια οτι ειναι ενας απο τους μεγαλυτερους δανειστες στο διεθνες τοκογλυφικο συστημα.

Σε καθε περιπτωση παντως τα αιτια ειναι ακομα πιο βαθεια και βρισκονται μεσα στο κοινωνικο συστημα της καθε χωρας κρατους που πηγαζη μεσα απο την αναμορφωση των νεων ανθρωπων,και στις αξιες που πρεπη να διδασκονται στα σχολεια,στα πανεπιστημια και ουτω καθ εξης.

Βεβαιως μεγαλο ρολο παιζη και το χρημα που ειναι και η κινητηριος δυναμη για τον ανθρωπο.

Αλλα αυτο εξαρταται κανεις πως το βλεπη,και πρεπη να τονιστη ιδιαιτερως οτι το νοημα της ζωης του ανθρωπου σημερα ειναι οτι ζη για το χρημα,δηλαδη να πλουτιζη,και αυτο το κανη μεσα απο πολες πτυχες της ζωης νομιμες και παρανομες.

Δεν ζη για το νοημα της ζωης που ειναι η γνωση οι αξιες και ο πολιτισμος.

Παντως σε γενικες γραμες η καθε ειδους βια ειναι καταδικαστεα και οι ενοχοι πρεπη να τιμωρουνται αυστηρως.